July 21, 2011 -
PRLog -- BMI's Q211 update on Egypt's telecommunications market contains YE10 operational and financial data published by the leading network operators and the country's telecoms regulator. Since our last update, new data have been published by both Mobinil (jointly owned by France's Orange and Egypt's Orascom Telecom)
, and Vodafone Egypt (part of the UK's Vodafone Group) that depict the size of their respective mobile businesses at the end of December 2010. The Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT) has also published latest market data relating to end of December 2010. According to figures published by the regulator, there were 70.661mn subscribers in Egypt at the end of December 2010. This represents market penetration of 83.6% and growth of more than 27% over December 2009 mobile subscriber figures. BMI notes that Q410 accounted for 6.735mn subscribers or 44% of total net additions in 2010. This was the result of growing price competition among mobile operators Vodafone, Mobinil and Etisalat, all of whom recorded their highest ever quarterly subscriber net gain in Q410. Vodafone extended its lead in the mobile market in terms of subscriber numbers to 3.2% in Q410 on the back of a lion's share of net additions in that quarter. The operator acquired 3.002mn net additions in Q410, bringing its total to 31.768mn subscribers and representing a market share of 45%. The strength in growth of its customer base related in part to a drive in the number of mobile internet subscribers. As for Mobinil, the operator managed to acquire 2.372mn new subscribers but saw its market contract to 42.8%. BMI calculated Etisalat's subscriber numbers based on overall figures published by the regulator. We believe Etisalat recorded net additions of 1.361mn mobile subscribers in Q410 to boost its market share to 12.3%. In view of the strong growth in 2010, BMI has revised its forecasts for the development of the Egyptian mobile market. We expect mobile penetration rates will exceed 100% by the end of 2012. We also expect future mobile growth to be supported by operators tapping into new growth markets, particularly rural markets. There is reason to believe that 3G service uptake in Egypt is faster than previously anticipated. Therefore, we have revised upwards our 3G forecast and now envisage that 3G subscribers will account for more than 15% of total mobile subscriptions by 2015. While Egypt's fixed voice connections suffered negative growth in 2010, the internet sector saw significant progress with the MCIT reporting that 22.831mn people used the internet in Egypt as of December 2010. Fixed-
line incumbent Telecom Egypt also recorded impressive growth of its ADSL subscriber base in 2010.With the government looking to award licences for triple-play services, we expect the rate of decline of fixed voice service to decrease in the latter part of our forecast period and the rate of uptake of fixed broadband services to accelerate during the same period.
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