July 21, 2011 -
PRLog -- The new Egypt Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 11.36% of the Middle East and Africa (MEA)'s regional power generation by 2015, struggling to cope with demand unless capacity is expanded significantly. BMI's MEA power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (when markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,508TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 18.5% between 2011 and the end of the period. MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI to have been 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,370TWh, implying 16.1% growth in the 2011-2015 period. This forecast factors in a slight reduction in the market share of thermal generation, which will fall to to 90.8% - thanks in part to environmental concerns and the promotion of renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Egypt's thermal generation in 2010 was an estimated 122TWh, or 10.68% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 10.09%
of regional thermal generation. Gas will have been the dominant fuel in Egypt in 2010, accounting for an estimated 50.2% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 42.5% and hydro with a 4.3% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,114mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 15.9% growth over the period since 2011. Egypt's estimated 2010 market share of 8.75% is set to rise to 8.90% by 2015. Egypt's estimated 15.5TWh of hydro generation in 2010 is forecast to reach 21.0TWh by 2015, with its share of the MEA hydro market easing from an estimated 41.43% to 38.88% over the period. Egypt is ranked equal third alongside South Africa and behind the UAE in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its market size and above-average proportion of renewables (hydro-
power) use. While the regulatory environment is not particularly attractive, the power sector is modestly competitive, with some progress towards privatisation. Egypt should over the medium term be able to pull away from South Africa, but is unlikely to be able to catch the UAE. BMI now forecasts Egyptian real GDP growth averaging 4.47% a year between 2011 and 2015, with a 2011 growth assumption of 3.20%. Population is expected to expand from 84.5mn to 91.7mn, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita to increase by 67% and 13% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 124TWh in 2010 to 154TWh by 2015, putting constant pressure on the electricity supply industry even assuming 4.1% average annual growth in power generation during 2011-2015. Between 2011 and 2020 we forecast an increase in Egyptian electricity generation of 47.9% - above the middle of the range for MEA. This equates to 24.6% during 2015-2020, up from 18.7% in 2011-2015. PED growth is set to be 24.6% in 2015-2020, up from the 19.0% expected for 2011-2015, representing 48.3% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 73% in hydro-power use in 2011-2020 is an important element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 36% between 2011 and 2020. More details of BMI's long-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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