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Follow on Google News | New market study, "Peru Freight Transport Report Q3 2011", has been publishedNew Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
However, the recent victory for Ollanta Humala in the presidential election on June 5 has a huge bearing on the route the country's finances will take. Our near-term positive outlook for Peruvian markets will be reinforced if appointments to key positions, including the finance minister and central bank president, are perceived as signalling broad policy continuity and a pro-investor stance. Over the longer term, heightened political risk could re-emerge, weighing on the performance of Peruvian assets. While in the short to medium term, Humala's need to reassure international investors and the inclusion of moderate technocrats in his economic team will likely keep him tied to a centrist policy trajectory, we believe his core, left-wing supporters may become dissatisfied a year or two down the line, which risks him moving back towards the left of the political spectrum. ------------------------------------------------------------ Full Report Details at - http://www.fastmr.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------ Based on our analysis at the time of writing, BMI forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 6.2% in Peru (representing a deceleration on the 8.5% growth rate achieved in 2010). We expect growth to ease further to 4.9% in 2012 and to fluctuate around 5% in the subsequent years. As a result, in the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average a strong 5.3% per annum. Headline Industry Data * Total Peruvian trade (imports+exports) * We are projecting throughput at Callao to grow 6.5% this year to 18.57mn TEUs * Air freight is predicted to grow by 8.5% to 245mn tonnes in 2011 Key Industry Trends APM Wins Concession To Operate Callao's Muelle Norte Proinversion, Peru's private investment promotion agency, has awarded the concession to develop Callao's Muelle Norte terminal to APM Terminals Callao, which is a consortium led by APM Terminals. BMI believes the news is a positive development for the port, which handles 45% of Peruvian cargo, bringing to a close a controversial concessioning process. Callao Becomes Victim Of Own Success The Port of Callao is operating very near capacity, following on from the opening of a new terminal in May 2010, according to the managing director of DP World's Americas region, Matthew Leech. Key Risks To Outlook BMI believes that risks to our Peruvian freight transport forecasts are now slightly to the upside. Peruvian markets have staged an impressive recovery since Ollanta Humala's victory in the presidential election on June 5 caused a sharp selloff across all asset classes. This underpins our core view that the near-term risks associated with a Humala victory have been to some extent overblown, as it is looking increasingly possible that the new government will pursue a much more moderate economic policy path than had originally been feared. In particular, we are encouraged that a number of major mining and other projects have been confirmed in the week since the result was announced, as there was concern that major investors would pull out on the back of a Humala win. Report Table of Contents: SWOT Analysis - Peru Freight Transport Industry SWOT - Peru Political SWOT - Peru Economic SWOT - Mexico Business Environment SWOT Industry Trends And Developments - Maritime Market Overview - Multimodal - Road - Rail - Air - Water Container Shipping Overview - Drivers - Bellwethers - Rates - Players Industry Forecast - Air Freight - Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015 - Maritime Freight - Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2015 ('000 tonnes) - Rail Freight - Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015 - Trade Overview - Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 - Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) - Table: Peru's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) - Table: Peru's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) Macroeconomic Outlook - Table: Peru - Economic Activity, 2008-2015 Political Outlook - Short Term Political Outlook - Long-Term Political Outlook Company Profiles - Agunsa - Ferrocarril Central Andino - LAN Cargo BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Transport Industry - Sources About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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