July 19, 2011 -
PRLog -- In this updated report, BMI forecasts that Colombia will account for 4.99% of Latin American regional power generation by 2015, with a slight generation surplus after system losses that may still require imports on occasion, particularly if drought conditions impact the vital hydro-power segment. BMI's Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,212 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.39% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,438TWh by 2015, representing an increase of 14.44% during 2011-2015. Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 449TWh, accounting for 37.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 496TWh, implying 8.52% growth during 2011-2015, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.5% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Colombia's thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated at 13.7TWh, or 3.06% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 3.37% of thermal generation. For Colombia, hydro is the dominant energy source, accounting for an estimated 30.9% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 28.8%, gas at 26.1% and coal with a 10.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 790mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 14.53%
growth during 2011-2015. Colombia's estimated 2010 market share of 4.70% is set to rise to 4.82% by 2015. The country's estimated 42.5TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 47.0TWh by 2015, with its share of the Latin America hydro market falling from an estimated 6.45% to 6.23%. Colombia is ranked second just ahead of Chile and behind only Brazil in BMI's updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its use of renewable (mostly hydro-power)
energy and relatively low energy import dependency. Regulatory issues and privatisation progress beat the regional average, but country risk factors offset some of the industry strength. Over the next several quarters, the country will continue to compete with Chile, given the two-point gap between the two countries. BMI is now forecasting Colombian average annual real GDP growth of 4.77% between 2011 and 2015, with an increase of 4.70% assumed for 2011. The population is expected to expand from 46.3mn to 49.3mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 31% and 15% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 45TWh in 2010 to 57TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a small supply surplus after power industry usage and system losses, but occasional power imports will be required if electricity generation grows at our forecast rate (2011-2015) of an average 4.4% per annum. Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Colombian electricity generation of 38.8%, which is above average for the Latin America region. This equates to 17.5% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 18.1% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 16.4% in 2011-2015 to 18.2% in 2015- 2020, representing 45.2% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 22% in hydro-power use during 2011-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 58% between 2011 and 2020. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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