New market study, "China Metals Report Q3 2011", has been published

July 18, 2011 - PRLog -- China's consumption and supply of copper, steel, aluminium, lead, nickel and tin increased substantially in 2010 due to base effects as the world's second largest economy returned to growth above 9%. We expect strong growth in both supply and demand across these sectors as China continues to feed its near insatiable hunger for refined metals. We expect aluminium production to increase at an average annual rate of 5.2%, reaching 20.4mn tonnes (mnt) in 2015, from 15.8mnt in 2010, with most of this growth driven by Yunnan Aluminium and Henan Bowei Aluminium. We expect consumption of aluminium to grow faster due to the development of infrastructure, averaging 9.2% per annum over the period, reaching 24.8mnt, from 16.2mnt in 2010. In addition, we have upgraded our copper production forecast on the back of Xiangguang Copper's expansion plans. We now expect refined copper production to reach 6.56mnt in 2015, marking an average annual rate of growth of 7.2% from 4.57mnt in 2010. Refined copper consumption is set average 7.0% per annum from 7.42mnt in 2010 to 10.5mnt in 2015.

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In terms of lead production, we forecast an annual average growth rate of 6.2%, reaching 5.13mnt by 2015. Yuguang Gold & Lead Co will account for much of this in production as the company plans to increase total refined lead output by 50% to 700,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2015. We expect refined lead consumption to reach 4.98mnt in 2015, marking an average increase of 7.5% per annum. In addition, we forecast steel consumption to average 5.8% growth to 2015, reaching 745mnt, up from 561mnt in 2010. Steel production will reach 744mnt in 2015, marking average growth of 3.5% per annum from 2010, when output was 626mnt. Steel output could be further boosted as Chinese companies increase production to make up for lost output from Japanese refineries following the earthquake in March 2011. Finally, we expect a 5.7% growth in Chinese refined tin production, reaching 195,000 tonnes (kt) in 2015. Demand for tin is set to increase by an average rate of 4.3% to reach 189kt in 2015.

As well as forecasting growth across all sectors, we highlight the trend of Chinese consumption outpacing production. This will mean China becomes more reliant on the import of refined metals, perhaps from Australia, one of the largest producers of refined metals. That said, China appears to be seeking greater selfsufficiency and thus we note upside risks to our production forecasts, as the government may search for greater domestic exploration and manufacturing.

There are two other risks to our outlook. First, the supply of refined metals could be at risk from efforts to increase energy efficiency and reduce power usage, as was seen at the end of 2010. Indeed, while it tends to be the smaller refineries that are less efficient, refined metal production is highly fragmented and the smaller refineries account for a substantial proportion of output. Second, our forecasts for consumption growth are in line with overall GDP growth and thus any downturn in the economy would reduce growth in base metals consumption. Our expectations for demand are therefore exposed to the effects of monetary and fiscal tightening as the Chinese government attempts to stop the economy from overheating.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- China Political SWOT
- China Economic SWOT
- China Business Environment SWOT
Global Market Overview
- Steel Forecast
- Steel to Average US$580/tonne In 2011
- BMI Steel Forecast
- Steel Prices
- Cost Push on The Supply Side
- Few Supply Constraints In Sight, For Now
Commodities Forecast
- Commodity Strategy - Metals Update
- Aluminium
- Copper
- Gold
- Lead
- Nickel
- Tin
- Zinc
Regional Overview
- Table: Top 10 Asian Steel Producers, 2009
Forecast Scenario
- Aluminium: Infrastructure Development To Drive Consumption
- Key Development Plans
- Aluminium Production Growth
- Aluminium Demand Growth
- Copper: Production & Consumption To Maintain Rapid Growth
- Key Expansion Plans
- Copper Production And Consumption Forecasts
- Tin: Modest Deficit To Remain
- Refined Tin Production
- Modest Growth In Consumption
- Refined Tin Consumption
- Nickel: Production Deficit To Narrow
- Nickel Production
- Nickel Demand
- Steel: Excess Capacity Will Be Hard To Curb
- Top Producing Regions (10kt*) & Share Of Total (%)
- Steel Consumption And Production Forecasts ('000 tonnes unless stated)
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: China - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Steel
- Iron Ore Supplies
- Aluminium
- Table: China's Aluminium Smelter Capacities
- Financial Results
Company Profiles
- Chinalco
- China Steel Corporation
- Chung Hung Steel
Global Assumptions, Q311
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
- Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
- Developed States
- Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
- Emerging Markets
- Table: Emerging Markets' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
- Consensus Forecasts
- Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.