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Market Report, "Indonesia Tourism Report Q3 2011", published

Fast Market Research recommends "Indonesia Tourism Report Q3 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available

 
PRLog - July 10, 2011 - Core Forecasts

Tourist arrivals for the first four months of 2011 have shown strong growth, in line with BMI's forecasts. Total arrivals for the January-April period stand at 2,323,039, up 7.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) according to figures from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). For 2011, therefore, we maintain our target of 9% growth in tourist arrival numbers, taking total tourist arrivals for the year to the 7.63mn mark. This target is in line with the government's own aims to attract between 7.3mn and 7.7mn tourists to Indonesia throughout the year. After two strong years of growth in 2010 and 2011, our core forecast is then for Indonesia to consolidate recent gains with a more measured rate of tourist arrival growth, to reach a total of 8.72mn tourists by end-2015.

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Tourist arrivals for 2010 were in line with BMI's forecasts, with Indonesia welcoming just over 7mn tourists over the year, representing an increase of 9.76% y-o-y. This strength in visitor arrival numbers underlines our continued bullish stance towards Indonesian tourism for 2011 and beyond. Hotel occupancy rates also rose slightly, to an average of 50.6% for the year as a whole, according to information from the country's Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Tourist expenditure for 2010 stood at an estimated US$7.6bn, which represents an annual increase of 20.7%.

Lion Air Float For 2012?

Despite the relative disappointment of Indonesian flag carrier Garuda Indonesia's February 2011 IPO, there are indications that fellow airline Lion Air is now considering a float on the Jakarta Stock Exchange, potentially in 2012. According to an April 2011 report by Reuters, Lion Air hopes such an IPO can raise in excess of US$1bn, to help fund the airline's ambitious expansion plans.

In Lion Air's favour is the fact that this it is the dominant airline operating in Indonesia at the present time, with more than 40% market share. Moreover, the company is in a fairly sound financial position, with revenues estimated at between US$700mn and US$800mn for FY10 and with strong growth predicted for the domestic Indonesia air travel industry over the coming years. Against this backdrop, BMI believes that a future Lion Air flotation could well be better subscribed than Garuda's was earlier in 2011.

Further information on both Garuda Indonesia and Lion Air (including SWOT analysis) is available in the Company Monitor section at the end of this report.

Fellow low-cost carrier Air Asia Indonesia (AAI) has also said that it still plans to sell a 20% stake later in 2011. Company CEO Dharmadi says that the airline still plans to raise US$150-200mn via an IPO on the JKSE during the fourth quarter. The proceeds of the IPO will be used to buy new planes and fund growth, according to the company. AAI has a stated aim of increasing its fleet size to 30 (from 20) by 2015. Like Lion Air, AAI is arguably in better financial shape than Garuda, with the low-cost airline posting a 37% increase in revenues during 2010, to IDR2.76trn, with net profit up by 350% at IDR474bn.

Bullish Outlook For Hotel Industry

For 2011-12, there are an expected 13 new hotel openings scheduled for Jakarta, according to the local hotel and restaurant industry association (PHRI), with a further six to be built in Surabaya. The PHRI has also stated that local players Santika and Sahid are to build some 40 new hotels across the archipelago over the coming two years, with the industry witnessing strong interest from foreign investors.

In this context, there is currently a great deal of construction activity in the high-end hotel sector on the island of Bali, which is due to host the 2013 APEC summit. To prepare for the arrival of high-ranking dignitaries to the island, there are several new high-end hotels scheduled for opening in 2011, including Starwood Hotels' W Retreat & Spa Bali at Seminyak and Pullman Hotels' Bali Legian Nirwana, which have both now opened. Other high-end hotel chains set to open new properties in Bali over the 2011-13 period include Banyan Tree, InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), Ritz Carlton and Kempinski. The arrival of additional high-end properties should do much to boost average room revenues for the country.

French hotel operator Accor has also announced plans to expand its Indonesian network, adding a further 21 hotels to the 13 new hotels on which it has already commenced construction across the archipelago. In total, these 34 new hotels will almost double Accor's current property portfolio of 40 hotels. Further information on Accor's Indonesian corporate strategy, together with company data and a SWOT analysis, is available in the Company Monitor section of this report.

Rounding out the optimism surrounding the Indonesian hospitality sector at present, in May 2011 luxury hotel chain Fairmont Hotels & Resorts announced plans to open the 380-room Fairmont Jakarta in 2014. About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

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