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Follow on Google News | Recently released market study: Egypt Tourism Report Q3 2011Fast Market Research recommends "Egypt Tourism Report Q3 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available
The latest official data show the extent of the downturn in tourism in the wake of the political crisis earlier in 2011. Although total tourist arrivals were up favourably in January, by almost 9% year-on-year (y-o-y), visitor numbers fell 80% and 60% y-o-y respectively in February and March 2011. The sharp falls were largely the result of an 83% y-o-y decline in arrivals from European source markets in February and a 68% fall in March. Visitors from Middle East countries also declined 71% and 31% y-o-y respectively over the same two-month period. Hospitality Early indications of the severe fallout for the hospitality sector from the recent political crisis come from official figures for Q111. Despite total tourism nights increasing a strong 18% y-o-y in January, overnight stays fell more than 50% y-o-y in February and an even larger 65% y-o-y in the following month. With regard to the key source region, nights attributed to European tourists declined around 60% and 70% y-oy respectively in February and March. Reports indicate that hotel occupancy rates picked up somewhat in April, but rates in the key Red Sea resorts of Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh remained less than 40%. Cairo also continues to lag behind the rest of the country, with mostly business visitors to the capital. ------------------------------------------------------------ Full Report Details at - http://www.fastmr.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------ Bird Flu Update Since our last report there has been a relatively sharp increase in the number of human infections and deaths in Egypt caused from the H5N1 (bird flu) virus - although the absolute numbers remain quite low. Figures published in May 2011 by the World Health Organization (WHO) show Egypt has confirmed 47 human deaths caused from the virus (seven new deaths since February), out of 143 (previously 122) known human infections in the country, the largest number outside Asia. Forecast Scenario Although the dominant threat to tourism is political unrest, moderate economic recovery in major source markets should help tourist numbers recover in the latter part of 2011. In the eurozone, our revised forecasts are for economic growth of 1.8% in 2011 (up marginally on growth in 2010), with the same growth rate expected in 2012. Outside the eurozone, our revised economic growth forecasts for the UK - a key market for inbound tourism - stand at 1.7% and 2.2% in 2011 and 2012 respectively (after growth estimated at 1.3% in 2010). An added concern for the sector is regional political instability, particularly in neighbouring Libya, which will add to the perceived risk of holidaying in Egypt. Taking account of the most recent tourist data, we have revised our forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2011 and now expect an annual fall of around 20%. Assuming political stability returns to Egypt, full recovery in the sector, meanwhile, is unlikely to take place until 2012. Hilton Worldwide In April, Hilton Worldwide opened the 164-unit Hilton Zamalek Residence Cairo, overlooking the River Nile. Hilton has a management agreement with Cairo-based Safir El Zamalek Hotel Company on the hotel, which underwent considerable renovation. Hilton plans to add a number of other properties over the next few years to its portfolio across the country, underpinning the confidence it has in the Egyptian tourism market. Partial Table of Contents: SWOT Analysis - Egypt Tourism SWOT - Egypt Political SWOT - Egypt Economic SWOT - Egypt Business Environment SWOT Industry Forecast Scenario - Arrivals - Table: Egyptian Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 - Accommodation - Table: Accommodation, 2007-2015 ('000, unless otherwise stated) - Expenditure - Table: Tourist Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2015 - Inbound Tourism - Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015 - Outbound Tourism - Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 Market Overview - Travel - Airports - Commercial Airlines - Table: Key Players - Commercial Airlines - Global Oil Products Price Outlook - Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) - Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) Market Overview - Hospitality - Accommodation Developments - Tourism Infrastructure - Regional Case Study: Accor - Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2011 Business Environment Outlook - Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings - BMI's Security Ratings - Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings - Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index - Egypt's Security Risk Ratings - City Terrorism Rating - Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index - Middle East And North Africa Security Overview H5N1 Virus Overview Special Report: Tourism And Terrorism Global Assumptions, Q311 - Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 - Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) - Developed States - Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Emerging Markets - Table: Emerging Markets' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Consensus Forecasts - Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) Company Profiles - EgyptAir - Egyptian General Company For Tourism And Hotels (EGOTH) - Travco BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Tourism Industry - Tourism Ratings - Methodology - Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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