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Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals:
* Healthcare:
* Medical devices: KZT67.7bn (US$460mn) in 2010 to KZT76.35bn (US$528mn) in 2011; +12.7% in local currency terms and +14.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from 2011 due to macroeconomic factors.
Business Environment Rating: Kazakhstan's BER score remains unchanged this quarter, although the country's ranking has dropped from 13th to 16th quarter-on-quarter due to the improvement in the scores of other countries. Kazakhstan faces two primary challenges to its business environment. First, the country's long-term political stability remains in question until the current regime names or otherwise strongly hints at a successor to President Nazarbayev. Second, the country's poor infrastructure, large size and small population present long-term obstacles to any foreign investor.
Key Trends & Developments
* Kazakhstani officials talked up the potential of negotiations between the European Free Trade Association and the Customs Union of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus to lay the basis for expanding free trade between the union and the European Union, although any real breakthroughs are likely a long way off. More substantively, in our view, diplomatic sources say that World Trade Organisation (WTO) accession talks with Russia and Kazakhstan and key decision makers, including the US and EU, have restarted, and that Kazakhstan could closely follow Russian entry into the WTO as soon as 2012. Less likely, but still promising for Kazakhstan-based producers, are moves by Russia to bring Ukraine into the Customs Union.
* While Kazakhstan signed an agreement to harmonise some aspects of public health protection and promotion with Russia and Belarus in April, mutual recognition of drug-registration dossiers has been put off until at least 2012. We anticipate this date will slip further in the future given the daunting practical challenges of sharing information as well as vested interests of national regulators.
BMI Economic View: Over the medium term Kazakhstan's economic potential will remain constrained by poor conditions within the domestic banking sector. That said, while growth will remain below precrisis levels, higher commodity prices and export volumes will facilitate healthy economic expansion of above 6.0% annually. Furthermore, over the longer run, owing to the government's economic diversification strategy and the economy's rapidly improving business environment, stronger growth should pick up on the back of higher foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.
BMI Political View: While Kazakhstan's snap April 3 presidential election fell short of international standards, we take a positive stance on the outcome. The re-election of President Nursultan Nazarbayev is likely to presage a further reform drive, enhancing Kazakhstan's appeal as a destination for foreign investment and bolstering the republic's growth outlook. Of even greater importance than the continued implementation of economic reforms, is for Nazarbayev to put in place a process that will ensure a smooth political transition at the end of his own period in office. At present, Nazarbayev has no obvious successor, while the April 3 election highlights the undeveloped nature of Kazakhstan's political institutions.About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
