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New Market Research Report: India Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "India Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research

 
PRLog - June 22, 2011 - The latest India Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 12.4% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 11.2% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.

In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. India's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 10.9%, while its share of production is put at 11.1%. By 2015 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 11.7%, with the country accounting for 13.1% of supply.

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Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/171486_india_oil_gas_report_q3...
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Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.

Indian real GDP growth is assumed by BMI to have been 8.6% in 2010, with an annual average of 8.0% forecast in 2010-2015. State oil firm Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is charged with maximising domestic oil production, which in 2010 averaged an estimated 909,000b/d. Thanks to its efforts and those of UK-based Cairn Energy, we see production peaking at around 1.2mnb/d by 2013. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 4-5% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 4.01mn b/d by 2015. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 3.09mn b/d by the end of the five-year forecast period. Gas consumption is set to rise from an estimated 55bcm in 2010 to 76bcm in 2015, with domestic supply up from around 45bcm in 2010 to at least 73bcm by 2015.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a fall in Indian oil production of 13%, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 1.15mn b/d, then falling steadily to reach 800,000b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 42.47%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 4.65mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 45bcm in 2010 to a possible 85bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 177.8%, India is likely to be importing up to 24bcm per annum of gas by the end of the period, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provide regional and country-specific projections.

India is ranked second, behind Australia, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table, leading China and Vietnam as a result of a good performance in both the upstream and downstream segments. India ranks second, ahead of Vietnam, in BMI's upstream Business Environment ratings, with a strong resource position being offset somewhat by extensive state involvement, a limited competitive landscape and only a moderate risk environment. The country sits 16 points behind Australia and two ahead of Vietnam. The country shares first place with China in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its status as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It is seven points ahead of Japan, with no threat from the more mature Asian energy economy.About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

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