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Recently released market study: Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2011

Fast Market Research recommends "Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available

 
PRLog - Jun. 15, 2011 - BMI View: Zimbabwe remains a very challenging pharmaceutical market, with political and economic difficulties compounded by shortcomings in healthcare and physical infrastructure in general. Per-capita annual expenditure on drugs is under US$15, although large income disparities mean much of the population has extremely limited access to medicines. While the country's demographic and epidemiological profiles are potentially attractive to foreign investors, Zimbabwe's longer-term potential will remain below par until the wider operating environment is substantially improved.

Headline Expenditure Projections

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Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/169898_zimbabwe_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q3_2011.aspx
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* Pharmaceuticals: ZWD155mn (US$155mn) in 2010 to ZWD178mn (US$178mn) in 2011; +15.0% in local currency terms and +15.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q211.
 * Healthcare: ZWD751mn (US$751mn) in 2010 to ZWD810mn (US$810mn) in 2011; +7.8% in local currency terms and +7.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q211.
 * Medical devices: ZWD35mn (US$35mn) in 2010 to ZWD39mn (US$39mn) in 2011; +11.3% in local currency terms and +11.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q211.


Business Environment Rating: Zimbabwe's position in BMI's Q311 regional matrix for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region remains unchanged. The country is still 19th out of 19 key regional markets. Globally, its composite score of 28 places Zimbabwe second-last out of the 83 markets surveyed, with little hope of improving its position in the coming months unless there are major changes to its risk profile.

Key Trends & Developments

* According to April 2011 reports by The Herald, the Global Fund has refused to finance Zimbabwean health programmes, which include HIV and AIDS, TB and malaria initiatives, on the back of the country being unable to define financial arrangements for its national strategic plan. The country is working on the development of its national strategic plan for the next five years. The coordinator of the Global Fund To Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM), Rangarirai Chiteure, announced that Zimbabwe, which was unsuccessful in qualifying for rounds 9 and 10 of funding, will apply for round 11 for HIV, TB and health strengthening systems.
 * On a positive note, an international study has revealed a huge decline in the prevalence of HIV in Zimbabwe due to fears of infection and mass social change. The study, published in February 2011, found that Zimbabweans have been motivated to change their sexual behaviour following increased public awareness of AIDS deaths and also of HIV transmission and prevention. The investigation into the reasons for the declining HIV rate was carried out by epidemiologists at Imperial College and Harvard University School of Public Health, in collaboration with the Zimbabwean Ministry of Health, the UN Population Fund and UNAIDS.


BMI Economic View: Although official data is limited, anecdotal evidence suggests that the Zimbabwean economy is continuing to recover from its 'lost decade'. However, we believe that this recovery is happening more slowly than the country's potential might suggest, as broad economic activity is still constrained by an uncertain political climate. The major political parties are likely to remain at odds over several issues during 2011 and we therefore believe that the theme of below-potential economic growth will persist through 2011 and into next year. With economic activity so tied to sentiment regarding the political climate, we stress that there are both upside and downside risks to our forecasts (of 7.1% and 7.4% GDP growth in 2011 and 2012, respectively), depending on how the very fluid situation unfolds. Economic advances will have clear implications for healthcare and pharmaceutical expenditure developments, with part of the spending increase driven by inflation.

BMI Political View: Recent events in Zimbabwe reinforce our belief that President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party wants elections to take place sooner rather than later. Although opposition to early polls from the Movement for Democratic Change and regional leaders could yet see a delay, the history of Mugabe getting his way leads us to maintain our view that elections will take place in late 2011 or early 2012 at the latest. The timing of the elections will have an impact on private sector investors, who are also awaiting recommendations on the subject of indigenisation. The recommendations from governmentappointed committees on the level of local ownership required for each industry are yet to be published and until there is some clarity on this, foreign investors are likely to remain at bay, even though South African pharmaceutical firms have expressed interest in Zimbabwe over the past months.About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

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