- Jun. 1, 2011 -
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The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that King Abdullah II will remain the dominant political figure in Jordan, despite recent domestic and regional unrest. The security forces are effective, and the threat to political stability is relatively low. The opposition Islamic Action Front (IAF, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood)
has been weakened by in-fighting between its moderate and more extreme wings, but it has raised its public profile during popular anti-government demonstrations in early 2011. IAF supporters, alongside leftists and youth groups inspired by demonstrations in other Arab states, will continue to press for political reform, although not for the overthrow of the king. The king's powers of diplomacy will be tested as he seeks to plot a careful course amid the unrest in neighbouring countries, balancing popular Jordanian support for Arab pro-democracy movements with Jordan's existing alliances and interests. The king will dictate policy on most domestic matters, although pressure for political reform will increase. Jordan's fiscal account will remain heavily in deficit, and the government will continue to rely on an uncertain flow of foreign grants. Real GDP growth is expected to recover slowly in 2011-12, but will struggle to reach the highs of 2004-08. It should pick up to an average of 4.8% in 2013-15. We expect the current-account position to improve over the forecast period, moving into surplus in 2015.
Key changes from last month
There is no change to the political outlook.
Economic policy outlook
There is no change to the economic policy outlook.
We have revised down slightly our growth forecast for 2011 to 3.3%, as we expect regional unrest to limit the amount of foreign direct investment and restrict the expansion of the tourism sector.
This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 37
NAICS Code: 336
Country Forecast Jordan May 2011: published 5/17/2011 is available at:http://www.reportbuyer.com/countries/middle_east/jordan/c...
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