Market Report, "Turkey Freight Transport Report Q2 2011", published

May 18, 2011 - PRLog -- We are positive about the outlook for the Turkish economy over the next few years, and consequently we feel it will be supportive of the country's freight transport sector. The central story is that private sector consumption, based on the rising purchasing power of the middle class, will be expanding, with gross fixed investment also making a positive contribution, fuelled by a market-friendly business climate and a broadly receptive policy on foreign investment. There are some potential negatives, however. With elections due in June 2011, the government's desire to keep growth strong could end up fuelling inflation and forcing a tightening of monetary policy, which would in turn rein in GDP expansion in late 2011 and early 2012. On the political front the government's tougher stance on the media, the recent arrests of journalists, and a more assertive foreign policy in the context of the existing upheavals in the Middle East could all give foreign investors some cause for concern and caution. As a result of our analysis, BMI estimates 2010 GDP growth of 7.9% in Turkey (following on from a contraction of 4.7% in 2009 when the country was hit by the global recession). Our outlook for 2011 is for economic growth to lose a little steam. Turkish growth will ease back to 4.3%, and then gather a little more pace to 4.4% in 2012 and 5.3% in 2013. In the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average 4.9% per annum.

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Full Report Details at
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Headline Industry Data

* Overall, Turkish trade will remain vigorous in 2011: BMI predicts real terms growth of 7.9% (v.s. 12.2% in 2010)
 * We are now projecting cargo volume at the Port of Ambarli to grow 14.1% this year to 4.370mn tonnes
 * Airfreight is predicted to grow by 7.4% to 1.627mn tonnes in 2011


Key Industry Trends

Work on one of the world's most sophisticated transport projects, the Marmaray rail and Bosporus road tunnels, is continuing. In March, construction of the second, 14.5km-long tube tunnel under the Bosporus commenced, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying it would become operational in three and a half years. The system is an eventual candidate for privatisation.

Turkish Airlines (THY) has placed an order for three new Airbus A330200F freighters, positioning itself to take advantage of the recovery in the global airfreight sector. The company did not say what routes they will operate, but last year THY increased its flights to Hong Kong and spoke of its desire to have a greater presence in the Asia-Pacific market.

In February Beskitas Shipyard launched a new 7,000dwt tanker, the Captain Nagdaliev, signalling a recovery for the country's shipbuilding sector. Despite this, BMI remains concerned over the medium to long-term outlook for local shipyards, which we believe will be squeezed by lower cost competitors, particularly in Asia

Key Risks to Outlook

BMI believes that risks to our Turkish freight transport forecasts are ranged on the downside. The main risk is that the economy will overheat in the run-up to the June 2011 elections, forcing the central bank to abruptly raise interest rates and therefore reduce GDP growth for H211 and for 2012 as a whole. Although we are not unduly worried by political risk associated with the elections, we acknowledged that recent developments, such as the arrest of journalists, could trigger greater caution from foreign investors, which will also have an adverse effect on growth.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Turkey Freight Transport SWOT
- Turkey Political SWOT
- Turkey Economic SWOT
- Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
- Multi-Modal
- Infrastructure
Industry Trends And Developments
- Multi-Modal/Logistics
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Maritime
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl)
Industry Forecast
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015
- Maritime Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2015 ('000 tonnes)
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2014
- Road Freight
- Table: Road Freight, 2009-2015
- Trade Overview
- Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
- Table: Turkey's Main Import Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
- Table: Turkey's Main Export Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
- Turk Hava Yollari (Turkish Airlines, THY)
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.