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Follow on Google News | "Iran Power Report Q2 2011" is now available at Fast Market ResearchRecently published research from Business Monitor International, "Iran Power Report Q2 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI to have been 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,370TWh, implying 16.1% growth in the 2011-2015 period. This forecast factors in a slight reduction in the market share of thermal generation to 90.8% - thanks in part to environmental concerns and the promotion of renewables, hydroelectricity and nuclear generation. Iran's thermal generation in 2010 was an estimated 192TWh, or 16.85% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 14.53% of regional thermal generation. ------------------------------------------------------------ Full Report Details at - http://www.fastmr.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------ Gas will have been the dominant fuel in Iran in 2010, accounting for an estimated 57.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 40.1% and hydro with a 0.8% share of PED. Nuclear power should make its first contribution during 2011. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,114mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 15.9% growth over the period since 2011. Iran's estimated 2010 market share of 22.38% is set to ease to 21.26% by 2015. Iran's nuclear demand is forecast to reach 10TWh by 2015, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 38.46%. Iran holds eighth place above Algeria and Kuwait in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings. This is largely a reflection of its market size. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive and the risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy over the country's nuclear energy programme. We see little scope for improvement on this quarter's 39-point score. BMI now forecasts that Iran's real GDP growth will average 1.90% a year between 2011 and 2015, with 2011 growth assumed to be 1.2%. The population is expected to expand from 73.9mn to 78.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 49% and 4% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 161TWh in 2010 to 176TWh by 2015, providing a small theoretical surplus, assuming 2.3% average annual growth in 2011-2015 electricity generation. The success of the nuclear programme will have a major influence on generation growth. Between 2011 and 2020 we forecast a 23.0% increase in Iranian electricity generation, near the bottom of the MEA range. This equates to 11.9% in 2015-2020, up from 10.0% in 2011-2015. PED growth is set to increase from 11.5% in 2011-2015 to 12.6%, representing 25.5% for the entire forecast period. In 2011, the availability of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 21% between 2011 and 2020. Details of BMI's longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report. Partial Table of Contents: SWOT Analysis - Iran Power Business Environment SWOT - Iran Political SWOT - Iran Economic SWOT - Iran Business Environment SWOT Industry Overview - Global - Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015 - Middle East And Africa Region - Table: Middle East And Africa Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) - Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) - Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe) - Table: Middle East And Africa Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) - Table: Middle East And Africa Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe) - Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh) Market Overview - Primary Energy Demand - Power Generation - Power Consumption - Regulation And Competition - Pricing - Power Transmission Business Environment - Middle East And Africa Power Business Environment Ratings - Table: Regional Power Business Environment Ratings - Iran's Power Rating - Iran's Business Environment Industry Forecast Scenario - Iran's Power Outlook - Generation - Gas-Fired - Oil-Fired - Coal-Fired - Nuclear Energy - Hydro-Electric - Renewable Energy - Power Costs - Transmission - Table: Iran's Power Sector, 2008-2015 - Table: Iran's Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) - Table: Iran's Non-Thermal Power, 2008-2015 - Table: Iran's Power Costs, 2008-2015 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) - Assumptions And Methodology - Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario - Long-Term Power Outlook Macroeconomic Forecast - Table: Iran - Economic Activity; 2006-2015 Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts - Global Snapshot - Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020 - Regional Outlook - Table: Middle East And Africa Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) - Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe) - Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) - Table: Middle East And Africa Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) - Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) - Iran Overview - Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Competitive Landscape BMI Methodology Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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