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Follow on Google News | Recently released market study: Italy Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Italy Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 416.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 457.1bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.7% growth. Production of an estimated 255.7bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 254.0bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 160.8bcm to some 203.1bcm by the end of the period. Italy's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 17.29%, while it contributed around 2.93% to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 17.41%, with a 2.76% contribution to regional supply. ------------------------------------------------------------ Full Report Details at - http://www.fastmr.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------ The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. Italian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.2% in 2010. We are forecasting 1.7% average annual growth in 2011-2015. By 2015, we expect to see the country consuming 1.63mn b/d of oil. A rise in near-term domestic oil production is also expected. We are assuming oil production of 150,000b/d in 2015, but imports are set to reach 1.48mn b/d. Use of gas in power generation is the key to demand growth and consumption looks set to reach 79.6bcm by 2015. Imports are likely to hit 72.6bcm at this stage. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in Italian oil production of 18.2%, with output peaking at 165,000b/d in 2013 before slipping to 90,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by just 1.57%, imports can also be expected to rise from an estimated 1.48mn b/d in 2010 to 1.53mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 72bcm to 88bcm by 2020. Production of an estimated 7.5bcm in 2010 is expected to fall to 5.0bcm by 2020, requiring imports up from 64.5bcm to 82.9bcm, in the form of pipeline gas and LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, Italy's long-term political risk score is 80.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 61.6, below the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. Italy has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a significant upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic and foreign operators. Downstream oil is highly competitive and involves a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and domestic companies. Both the gas and power markets are privatised and open to competition. About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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