"North Africa Telecommunications Report Q2 2011" now available at Fast Market Research

May 10, 2011 - PRLog -- The Q211 update of BMI's North Africa Telecommunications Report was written at a time of tumultuous political upheaval in the wider Middle East and North African region, with Tunisia's government being summarily replaced and unrest in Libya quickly escalating into outright revolution, which is likely to develop into a protracted civil war. Algeria, too, has the potential to become caught up in this infectious desire for regime change, though the situation there was less volatile at the time of writing. Morocco, by contrast, continues to be largely unaffected. A note of uncertainty therefore pervades our forecasts and business environment analyses for the region.

The installation of more open and progressive governments in Tunisia and Libya would be welcomed as it would hopefully open up these markets to more competition and attract a great deal of much-needed investment from foreign companies with the technological and marketing experience needed to make broadband services more widely available. The new regimes will hopefully see the value in accelerating tentative plans already in place to private state utilities, such as fixed network operators and key mobile network operators. Foreign investment would certainly go a long way towards assisting their economic development. But there can be no certainties just now. The new regimes leveraged the power of the mobile phone and the internet to drive their revolutions; they will just as likely crack down on those resources while they consolidate their hold on power.

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The disruptions - along with the protracted renationalisation of Algerian mobile operator Djezzy and the rather swifter sequestration of the former Tunisian government's 51% stake in newcomer Orange Tunisia - mean that key data for Q410 had not been published at the time of writing. Therefore, some of our analysis is more than usually reliant on estimates and is subject to change.

What is clear is that Morocco's mobile and broadband markets grew much faster in Q410 than we had been expecting, a result of intensifying price competition and product bundling. We have made some substantial upward revisions to our mobile market forecasts for Morocco (and now envisage there being 35.1mn subscribers by 2015) and some less dynamic upward revisions to the country's broadband forecasts (now being driven by 3G mobile broadband adoption). The country's fixed line market continues to demonstrate fluctuating consumer interest in more traditional connections.

France Telecom recently entered the Moroccan market through the purchase of a 40% stake in mobile operator Meditel. This follows on from its launch as a 3G operator in Tunisia and, once Orascom Telecom sells its stake in Djezzy to the Algerian government, it could look to consolidate its North African footprint by making a strategic investment in the business. However, the Algerian government has proved itself to be somewhat hostile to foreign investors (viz. its persecution of Orascom over alleged unpaid taxes, amongst other things), so moving into Algeria could be a risky strategy for the French operator.

We are hopeful that the privatisation of state-owned incumbent Tunisie Telecom will get underway later this year, and there is still a chance that its Algerian peer, Algerie Telecom, will follow suit at some point. Along with the auctioning of 3G/4G services in Algeria, these represent the key investment opportunities in the region now that the modernisation of the Libyan telecommunications network and the listing of Libya's two existing mobile network operators seem unlikely to occur until long after the battle for control of the country is decided one way or the other.

The disturbed political situation has begin to filter through into BMI's Business Environment Ratings this quarter, with all four North African countries receiving modified scores in multiple categories. Libya, Tunisia and Algeria are all marked down to greater or lesser degrees, while Morocco's robust performance leads to a small uptick in its fortunes. This does nothing to alter their overall positions relative to one another and with other countries in the Middle East. About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.