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Follow on Google News | New Market Research Report: Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011Fast Market Research recommends "Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 736.3bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.7% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 217.9bcm by the end of the period. Turkey's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 5.34%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 6.79%. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. Turkish GDP rose by an estimated 7.9% in 2010. We are forecasting average annual growth of 4.9% in 2011-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 640,000b/d in 2010 to 755,000b/d in 2015. State upstream company TPAO and some international oil companies (IOCs) are attempting to raise domestic oil output, but our estimates assume 55,000b/d of oil and liquids production in 2010, sinking to 44,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Imports therefore rise from an estimated 585,000b/d to 711,000b/d. Gas production will remain insignificant, but consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 34bcm to 50bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 48bcm. Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast an increase in Turkish oil consumption of 32.8%, with demand rising steadily from an estimated 640,000b/d to 850,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Refining capacity between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 164.8%, reaching 1.62mn b/d by 2020. Gas consumption is expected to climb from an estimated 34bcm to 62bcm, depending largely on imports. LNG imports are expected to virtually double from an estimated 6.5bcm to 12.0bcm during the forecast period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Turkey now shares third place with Poland in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is ranked fourth, behind Poland, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, in spite of the virtually non-existent oil and gas resource base. Russia is just two points behind and likely to challenge Turkey over the near term. Turkey's score reflects an established licensing framework and largely encouraging country risk factors. Turkey is now joint first, alongside Russia and ahead of Poland, in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with several high scores but some longer-term threat from Poland below. It shares a score of 61 points with Russia, thanks largely to high scores for oil demand, retail site intensity, non-state competition, deregulation and nominal GDP. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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