Market Report, "South Africa Retail Report Q2 2011", published

New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "South Africa Retail Report Q2 2011"
 
May 5, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI's Q211 South Africa Retail Report forecasts that the country's retail sales will grow from an expected ZAR627.90bn (US$76.13bn) in 2011 to ZAR941.75bn (US$114.19bn) by 2015. Key factors behind this expansion will be underlying economic growth, rising disposable incomes, falling unemployment, increasing urbanisation and the emergence of a black middle class.

South Africa's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$436bn in 2011, with 2010's growth rate of 2.8% forecast to increase to 3.5% as the economy continues to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 4.0% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population increasing from an expected 50.2mn in 2011 to an estimated 52.2mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 49.3% by the end of the forecast period to US$12,978.

Consumer spending is boosted by foreign visitors to South Africa. In 2008, according to Statistics South Africa (SSA), spending by visitors amounted to ZAR74.2bn (US$9.5bn). Following a difficult 2009, foreign visitor numbers are again on the increase. Boosted by the football World Cup, the country recorded a 15.1% increase in tourist arrivals in 2010 to more than 8mn.

In 2005, 64.1% of the South African population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.8% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. By 2015, 64.3% of the population is expected to be economically active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age range is forecast to reach 38%.

Growing urbanisation is also contributing to a vibrant retail sector, with a 26% increase in the number of urban households between 1994 and 2005. In 2005, less than 58% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to more than 64% by 2015.

According to BMI data, retail sub-sectors predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, sales of which are expected to increase from an expected US$7.52bn in 2011 to US$12.11bn towards the end of the forecast period, a rise of 61%. South Africa's tech-literate, high-end consumer electronics market is the largest in Africa, and youthful demographics, rising incomes and a regional economic boom should all support expansion.

Sales of over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are forecast to grow by nearly 64%, from an expected US$0.39bn in 2011 to US$0.63bn by 2015.

Vehicle sales are forecast to rise by 56%, from an expected 483,580 units in 2011 to 756,034 units in 2014. The size of the country, significant rural areas and the agricultural sector provide a substantial market for four-wheel drive vehicles, light pickups and SUVs.

We estimate that overall food consumption in South Africa in 2011 will account for 67.2% of total retail sales, worth an estimated US$51.14bn. This is forecast to increase to 72.0% of overall retail sales by 2015. The South African mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, comfortably Africa's largest in terms of value, is forecast to be worth US$32.20bn in 2011, representing 63.0% of the total food market. BMI expects its value to rise to US$53.0bn by 2015, when it will account for 64.4% of the food market.

Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2011 are predicted to amount to US$204.60bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI's macroeconomic database is forecast at US$722.41bn. In 2011, BMI predicts that South Africa and Israel will together account for an estimated 56.3% of regional retail sales, with Egypt accounting for a further 14.8%; by 2015, the combined share of South Africa, Israel and Egypt is expected to reach 72.3%. For South Africa, its estimated 2011 market share of 37.2% is expected to rise to 39.2% by 2015.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/152608_south_africa_retail_rep...


Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- South Africa Retail Business Environment SWOT
- South Africa Political SWOT
- South Africa Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: South Africa Retail Sales Indicators
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2011f
- Consumer Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: South Africa Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2008-2015
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2008-2015
- Current Trends
Business Environment Outlook
- Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings
- South Africa Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- South Africa Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of South Africa's MGR Market - Sales Value By Format, 2004-2009 (US$bn)
- Table: Structure Of South Africa's MGR Market - Sales Value By Format, 2004-2009 (ZARbn)
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: MGR Value Sales By Format, 2008-2015
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 And 2019
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- South Africa Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2015
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- South Africa Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: South Africa Auto - Production
- Table: South Africa Auto - Sales
- Exports
- Table: South Africa Auto - Exports/Imports
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:Retail, Electronics, Mgr, Grocery, Scenario, 2008-2015, Food, Mass, Auto, South African
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