New Market Research Report: Ukraine Shipping Report Q2 2011

May 4, 2011 - PRLog -- Throughput at one of Ukraine's largest ports, Odessa, is forecast to post a year of growth in 2011 following 2010, which was successful in terms of container throughput, but at the same time was the second consecutive year of decline in terms of total tonnage at the port.

The latest yearly figures (January-December 2010) show that tonnage volumes at the port of Odessa decreased by 11.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) reaching 24.7mn tonnes, while container volumes demonstrated a 37.6% growth to achieve 351,600TEU.

The published results present a firm foundation for BMI's forecasts in port throughput at Odessa for 2011 and for the rest of the mid term. We predict that port's tonnage will reach 29.5mn tonnes in 2015, increasing by 17.0% on projected 2011 handling figure. Container volumes for the same period will increase by 62.8% to reach 616,786TEUs in 2015.

Headline Industry Data

?? 2011 port of Odessa tonnage throughput forecast to rise 1.92% following a fall of 11.8% in 2010. ?? 2011 Odessa container throughput forecast to rise 7.77% following growth of 37.6% in 2010. ?? 2011 total trade growth forecast +4.51%.

Key Industry Trends

Odessa Box Throughput Growth Set To Slow In 2011 Following Year of Recovery: Growth in container throughput and a slowdown in the decline of total tonnage throughput during 2010 have left the port of Odessa, Ukraine's largest port, on a good footing for 2011. Looking ahead, we believe the port is likely to face a reduction in throughput growth on the back of the projected moderating growth in the country's economy. The port of Odessa's container throughput grew by 37.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the full year of 2010 to reach 351,600 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), compared with the 255,461TEUs that the port handled in 2009. This y-o-y improvement indicates that the port is on the road to recovery, but a full recovery to the port's historic high of 572,140TEUs, which the port recorded in 2008, is still some way off, after volumes plunged by a massive 55.35% in 2009.

Shaky Start to 2011 for Illichivsk, but Boxes Continue Increasing: 2011 has started poorly for Ukraine's second-largest port, Illichivsk, with cargo throughput for January and February down 24.3%. Box levels, however, are continuing to recover, showing that the country's economic recovery is filtering down to the consumer level and further down the supply chain to the container shipping sector. BMI believes that after this slightly rocky start the port's total tonnage throughput will return to positive territory following two consecutive years of decline. However, a full recovery in total throughput at the port is still a long way off.

Kenya and Ukraine Plan Maritime MoU: Kenya and Ukraine are to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on cooperation in the maritime sector. BMI notes that trade between the two nations has grown sharply in recent years, and that the MoU will help this continue. Whether it will go some way to rectifying the trade imbalance between the two, however, remains to be seen. The MoU was discussed during a meeting in the Kenyan capital, Mombasa, between the Ukrainian ambassador to Kenya Volodymyr Butiaha and the Kenyan maritime authority's director general, Nancy Karagitu. The agreement will cover the training of Kenyans in the Ukrainian ports sector and vice-versa, and cooperation between the countries' ports, in particular the primary Kenyan port of Mombasa and the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Nikolaev.

Risks To Outlook

The economic outlook, with growth forecast to slow in 2011, holds the largest risk to the country's maritime recovery. Ukraine is set to continue seeking private investors for its port sector in order to provide the funding needed to expand. Planned investment and increased oil transhipment offer upside risk to our forecast for the port of Odessa. The shipments of Azerbaijan oil to the port have started in March 2011, while further investment is planned for the port over the year, with the facility due to receive UAH591.8mn (US$75.35mn) from the state for the procurement of new handling equipment and the development.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.