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Recently released market study: United States Agribusiness Report Q2 2011

New Food and Beverage market report from Business Monitor International: "United States Agribusiness Report Q2 2011"

 
PRLog - May 4, 2011 - BMI View: Even with the rise of Brazil, the US will remain the world's largest agricultural producer over the medium term, driven partly by domestic demand but mainly export opportunities. We continue to forecast strong growth across the grains complex as high prices and the expectation of better weather bolster production. For livestock, we continue to forecast poultry outperformance in terms of production and consumption, as the beef and pork herds continue to be re-built. The country will also continue running a rice surplus, but will require more sugar imports over the medium term, despite a stagnation in consumption growth. As the largest user of genetically modified seeds, yields for US crops should continue to grow over the long term. This should compensate for a decrease in the expansion rate of farmland use.

Key Trends

* Wheat production growth to 2014/15: 19% to 71.9mn tonnes. The key driver for wheat production will be export potential, since domestic consumption will stay largely flat over the long term.
 * Poultry production growth to 2014/15: 12% to 21.1mn tonnes. The increase in production will come from rising domestic consumption. However, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, should serve as a powerful production incentive.
 * Soybean production growth to 2014/15: 11% to 102.2mn tonnes. This will be driven largely by two dynamics. First, domestic livestock production will experience growth across the sector. Second, the sector should see significant export opportunities.
 * 2011 Real GDP Growth: 3.1% (up from 2.9% in 2010; predicted to average 2.7% from 2010 until 2015).
 * Consumer Price Inflation (Urban Consumers): 2.1 % year-on-year in February 2011 (Same as February 2010).


Industry Developments

The coming battle for acreage between corn and soybeans in the US should have a significant impact on global prices over the medium term. The US is the world's largest producer of both corn and soybeans, and unlike wheat, they are grown in relatively close proximity, largely in the Mid-West. Given that corn and soybean prices will be elevated during the 2011/12 planting season (which will stretch from April- August 2011), we expect a fierce battle for acreage over the coming months. This is because although soybeans have a higher unit price, the US government provides a subsidy for corn production and perhectare yields are much higher. Therefore, profit margins for both corn and soybeans are relatively similar.

For almost 40 years the US was in the top five of the world's largest cheese importers, with much of the imports supplied from New Zealand or within the modern EU. However, subdued consumption growth and strong production growth (as downstream producers tried to bolster margins through producing value-added goods), allowed the US to run a cheese surplus in 2010. Over the long term, however, BMI does not see this trend of cheese production surpluses in the US continuing, as we forecast consumption growth to eventually return to pre-2007 levels towards the end of the forecast period in 2014/15, placing the US back in to deficit towards the end of our forecast period.

We believe JBS' potential acquisition of the meat division of US food producer Sara Lee could enable the Brazilian meat giant to use Sara Lee's meat production efficiency to improve its own operating margins, which underperform against regional competitors, and gain a greater foothold in the US meat sector. Sara Lee (which mainly produces desserts, coffee and meat products) has put forward many scenarios, including a break-up of its divisions or a leveraged buyout by private equity groups. Although the acquisition would require JBS to take on more debt, it could allow the Brazilian producer to rival Tyson Foods as the US' largest meat producer by revenue.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/152599_united_states_agribusin...


Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- United States Agricultural SWOT
- United States Political SWOT
- United States Economic SWOT
- United States Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- United States Grains Outlook
- Table: United States - Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
- United States Dairy Outlook
- Table: United States - Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: United States - Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: United States - Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- United States Soy Outlook
- Table: United States - Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
- United States Sugar Outlook
- Table: United States - Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- United States Livestock Outlook
- Table: United States - Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: United States - Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
-

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1525...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

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Industry:Food, Restaurants, Research
Tags:corn, soybean, food, wheat, rice, sugar, meat, poultry, cheese, milk
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