"Slovenia Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Slovenia Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
 
April 29, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI's latest Slovenia Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.06% of Central and  Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while making no meaningful contribution to  supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will have risen to an estimated  6.05mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.89mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was  8.89mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 will have averaged an estimated 13.82mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.08mn  b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply  expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total will have risen to an  estimated 7.76mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.19mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan  have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.  In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will have consumed an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm),  with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated  787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated  151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Slovenia has no significant share of regional gas  consumption or production.  For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl, +26.5% year-on-year  (y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of  US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around  US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price  averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From  2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.  For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl,  representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl,  probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6%  increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This  compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl,  up almost 31% from the previous year's level.  Slovenian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.8% in 2010. We are forecasting average  annual growth of 2.7% in 2010-2015. Beyond the expected weakness of 2009/2010, oil consumption  growth is forecast at an annual rate of 3%, reaching 63,000b/d by 2015. Gas consumption will have  reached an estimated 1.0bcm in 2010, with up to 0.4bcm being produced from domestic sources. Demand  is expected to have reached 1.4bcm by 2015, with domestic production potentially down to 0.1bcm and  imports totalling 1.3bcm.    Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Slovenian oil consumption of 37.7%, with  import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 53,000b/d to 73,000b/d by the end of the 10-year  forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to climb from an estimated 1.0bcm to 1.8bcm by 2020, met  largely by imports of 1.7bcm. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this  report.    Slovenia takes 15th and last place, behind Slovakia, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE)  ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It occupies 15th and last place in BMI's  updated upstream Business Environment ratings, thanks to its extremely limited hydrocarbons resources.  Its score is six points below that of nearest rival, Ukraine, but the growth outlook for oil and gas is  unimpressive and comes from an exceptionally low base. Country risk factors work in Slovenia's favour,  but there is little chance of an improvement capable of taking it past the other regional laggards. Slovenia  is near the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings,  sharing 11th place with Slovakia, Bulgaria and Uzbekistan. There are no particularly high scores and  progress further up the rankings seems unlikely over the medium term. There are poor scores for refining  capacity, oil and gas demand, population and nominal GDP.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/149686_slovenia_oil_gas_report...

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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