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Follow on Google News | New market study, "Sudan Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", has been publishedNew Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 123.7bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 176.2bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 217.7bcm in 2010 should reach 321.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 94bcm to 145bcm in 2015. Sudan is currently neither a consumer nor producer of gas. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. Sudan's real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 5.7% in 2010. We are forecasting average annual growth of 2.8% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 87,000b/d in 2010 to 111,000b/d in 2015. State oil company Sudan National Petroleum Corporation (Sudapet) is active in the country's oil exploration and production (E&P) sector, working in partnership with foreign (largely Asian) companies in raising oil output from an estimated 475,000b/d in 2010 to 735,000bd in 2015. There are no plans for significant gas production or consumption. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Sudanese oil and gas liquids production of 49.5%, with volumes peaking at 770,000b/d in 2016, before falling steadily to 710,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 142,000b/d by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Sudan now shares last place with Cameroon in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country holds 12th and last place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The country's score suffers from a very poor country risk rating, the absence of gas resources and significant state influence. The risk profile of the separate northern and southern states will no doubt change once the division has been completed. Sudan is just below the mid-point of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with few high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows more rapidly or new refineries are built. It is ranked equal seventh with Ghana, thanks to low scores for gas demand, country risk factors and nominal GDP. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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