April 27, 2011 -
PRLog -- The new Thailand Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.88% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2015, with a potential growing supply shortfall after system losses and power industry usage. BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015. In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for 79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Thailand's thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 140TWh, or 2.28% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 2.06% of regional thermal generation. Oil is the dominant fuel in Thailand, accounting for an estimated 44.5% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2010, followed by gas at 36.1%, coal at 14.6% and hydro-electricity with a 1.9% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. Thailand's estimated 2010 market share of 2.29% is set to fall to 2.20% by 2015. An estimated 8TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 10TWh by 2015, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market easing from an estimated 0.81% to 0.77% over the period. While there is no existing or near-term nuclear capacity, tentative plans exist for the construction of reactors, but at present there is no clear government policy. Thailand now shares seventh place, with Malaysia, Pakistan and Indonesia, in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Rating, thanks largely to its energy demand, plus moderate scores in most other categories. Pakistan and Indonesia both have the potential to pull away, while the presence of the Philippines below also poses a threat during the next few quarters. BMI is now forecasting Thai real GDP growth averaging 4.62% per annum between 2010 and 2015, with the 2011 assumption being an increase of 3.60%. Population is expected to expand from 68.1mn to 69.9mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 50% and 16% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 146TWh in 2010 to 174TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and transmission losses, there is scope for supply shortfall of 7TWh by 2015, assuming 3.9% average annual growth in electricity generation between 2010 and 2015. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Thai electricity generation of 37.7%, which is below average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 16.5% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 18.2% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to decrease from 21.4% in 2010-2015 to 16.3%, representing 41.2% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 50% between 2010 and 2020, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 28% over the same period. The consumption of renewables should at least double between 2010 and 2020. More detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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