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Follow on Google News | "Egypt Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011" is now available at Fast Market ResearchRecently published research from Business Monitor International, "Egypt Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 123.7bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 176.2bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 217.7bcm in 2010 should reach 321.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 94bcm to 145bcm in 2015. Egypt consumed an estimated 36.38% of the region's gas in 2010, with its market share set to be 32.11% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 29.40% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2015, will account for 23.97% of supply. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. Egyptian real GDP rose by an estimated 5.1% in 2010, with average annual growth of 5.2% forecast in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 734,000b/d in 2010 to 841,000b/d in 2015, subject to national efforts to conserve oil and increase the use of gas. State oil company Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs), and alone accounts for just 20% of the country's oil output. In spite of higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to decrease from an estimated 733,000b/d in 2010 to 681,000b/d in 2015. Gas production should reach 77bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 64bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 45bcm to 57bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 20bcm. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a fall in Egyptian oil and gas liquids production of 18.2%, with volumes slipping steadily to 600,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 32.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 975,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 95bcm by the end of the period. With demand increasing by 60.6% between 2010 and 2020, there should be export potential increasing to almost 23bcm, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10- year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Egypt now shares third place with Algeria and Libya in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds ninth place below Republic of Congo in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The country's score benefits from healthy proven gas reserves, an established competitive landscape, a reasonable gas reserves-toproduction ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country's risk environment is sound, but this alone may not be enough to push it higher during the next few quarters. Congo is just three points ahead but Egypt lacks the near-term momentum to challenge for eighth place. Egypt is comfortably near the top of the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, with some high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked outright second having remained ahead of Algeria, thanks to high scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, retail site intensity, population and GDP per capita growth. The growth outlook for oil/gas consumption and refining capacity is a relatively weak suit. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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