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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", publishedRecently published research from Business Monitor International, "United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 392bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 482bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.0% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010 should reach 612bcm in 2015 (+31.0%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of the period. The UAE will have consumed an estimated 15.85% of the region's gas in 2010, with its market share forecast at 16.23% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 10.49% to 2010 regional gas production and will account for 10.05% of supply by 2015. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. BMI assumes that UAE real GDP rose by 3.3% in 2010, and we expect average annual growth of 3.5% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 470,000b/d in 2010 to 530,000b/d in 2015, lagging our underlying economic assumptions. State-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is the biggest national oil company, working in partnership with major international oil companies (IOCs) to deliver an estimated 2.64mn b/d of oil and liquids production in 2010, rising to 3.02mn b/d by the end of the forecast period - subject to OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach 61.5bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 49.0bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 62.1bcm in 2010 to 78.2bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring net imports of around 16.7bcm. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in UAE oil production of 32.6%, with volumes rising steadily to 3.50mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 27.5%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 599,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 49bcm in 2010 to 68bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 57.8%, this provides a net gas import requirement rising to 30bcm over the period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. The UAE now holds first place, above Israel and Qatar, in BMI's composite Business Environment ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The UAE holds second place, behind Qatar, in BMI's updated upstream ratings, thanks largely to its significant oil and gas resource base and investor-friendly climate. It stands just two points behind Qatar and may have to settle for second best. The UAE's score reflects the country's gas reserves, high RPR, plus non-state competition, established licensing framework and generally encouraging country risk factors. The UAE is around the mid-point of the league table in BMI's downstream ratings, with some high scores and further progress up the rankings possible over the longer term. It is ranked fifth, ahead of Qatar and Bahrain, thanks largely to high scores for oil and gas demand, refining capacity expansion and nominal GDP. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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