New Market Research Report: Canada Agribusiness Report Q2 2011

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Canada Agribusiness Report Q2 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
 
April 24, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI View: Canada's main agricultural sectors appear to be going in different directions in the medium term. The country's grain sector (particularly wheat and barley) have seen production decreases in recent seasons due to poor weather and low prices. However, in 2011/12, we forecast production to rebound due to high prices and the anticipation of better weather. Corn production will continue to grow due to rising domestic demand. The country's livestock sector is not forecast to fare as well over the medium term. The country's pork sector should continue to decline owing to a shrinking national herd, while beef sector growth is forecast to stagnate as well owing to subdued demand growth and rising feed prices, which is squeezing farmer margins. The subdued growth, combined with optimistic consumption forecasts, leads us to project poultry to be the outperformer among the livestock sector over the long term.

Key Trends

* Rice consumption growth to 2015: 27% to 466,700 tonnes. This will largely come from an influx of new immigrants from countries that are large rice consumers such as China, India, Bangladesh, as well as Middle Eastern countries.
 * Corn production growth to 2014/15: 50% to 14.3mn tonnes. This will come from large domestic demand increases, owing to the Canadian government's decision to raise the renewable fuel content (which in Canada comes from corn) mandated for gasoline by 5% by 2010 and 2% in diesel by 2012.
 * Poultry consumption growth to 2015: 13% 1.40mn tonnes. Despite running a small surplus at the end of the forecast period, Canada will likely remain a net poultry importer over the long term, with a quota system currently in place to manage those imports.
 * 2011 Real GDP Growth: 2.4% (down from 2.8% in 2010; predicted to average 2.8% from 2010 until 2015).


Industry Developments

Canadian pork production has been largely stagnant over the last decade, with production actually declining between 2004/05 and 2009/10. In 2010/11, we are forecasting production to fall slightly again to 1.87mn tonnes. This will be chiefly due to three factors: firstly, a generally favourable outlook for the Canadian economy has put pressure on the Canadian central bank to lift interest rates, which should strengthen the Canadian dollar. A second factor restraining production has been rising feed prices. Finally, even if feed prices were to moderate and the Canadian dollar weaken somewhat, an important concern for Canadian producers, over the medium term, will be the general stagnation in demand, both domestically and abroad.

We have maintained our average price forecasts for 2011 and 2012 at US$15.00/cwt and US$16.00/cwt, although we note upside risks to this view. We are modestly bullish dairy in the medium term and forecast higher average prices in 2011 and 2012 as compared to 2010. Underlying fundamentals have become increasingly price supportive over recent months, chiefly due to a dramatic rise in feed costs. We forecast higher input costs and a continued realignment of supply and demand dynamics to keep dairy prices supported. However, as significant overcapacity still exists in the market, we do not view the sharp rally in milk prices since January as sustainable. Instead, we expect a temporary correction, before more modest gains resume over the coming quarters.

BMI is maintaining its 2011/12 Canadian wheat forecast of 24.7mn tonnes, despite warnings from the Canadian government that production could be trimmed due to potentially poor spring weather. Like many other wheat growers, Canada was expected to see a strong rebound in production from a poor 2010/11 crop. However, wet weather in the country's western provinces has caused a downgrade of at least 160,000 hectares, which will ultimately lead to lower stocks, with exports set to increase in 2010/11.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/149599_canada_agribusiness_rep...


Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Key Trends
- Industry Developments
SWOT Analysis
- Canada Agricultural SWOT
- Canada Political SWOT
- Canada Economic SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Canada Sugar Outlook
- Canada Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Livestock Outlook
- Canada Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Dairy Outlook
- Canada Milk Production & Consumption
- Canada Butter Production & Consumption
- Canada Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Milk Production & Consumption
- Canada Butter Production & Consumption
- Canada Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Soybean Outlook
- Canada Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Grain Outlook
- Canada Grain Outlook
- Canada Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Canada Rice Outlook
- Canada Rice Consumption & Trade
- Canada Rice Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
- Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
- Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa
- Table: Cocoa
- Coffee
- Table: Coffee
- Milk
-

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1495...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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