Iran Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011: New research report available at Fast Market Research

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Iran Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
 
April 22, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI forecasts that Iran will account for 23.16% of Middle Eastern (ME) regional oil demand by 2015 and provide 16.34% of supply. Middle East regional oil use rose to an estimated 7.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should average 7.7mn b/d in 2011 and then climb to around 8.7mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.90mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.21mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 27.24mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 17.85mn b/d. This total eased to an estimated 17.5mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 18.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar.

In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 392bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 482bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010 should reach 612bcm in 2015 (+31%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of the period. Iran consumed an estimated 33.95% of the region's gas in 2010, with its market share falling to 30.22% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 29.98% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2015, will account for 30.24% of supply.

The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.

We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.

Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.

BMI assumes that Iran's real GDP grew by 1.5% in 2010, and we are forecasting average annual growth of 1.9% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 1.73mn b/d in 2010 to 2.02mn b/d in 2015. The state-owned National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is responsible for all upstream oil and gas activities, although there is some small-scale participation by international oil companies (IOCs) on a subcontractor basis. The lack of large-scale IOC investment contributes to modest output growth, with crude production forecast to increase from an estimated 4.19mn b/d in 2010 to 4.45mn b/d in 2015, subject to OPEC quotas and the possible impact of sanctions resulting from the nuclear energy standoff. Gas production should reach 185bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 140bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from 133bcm to 146bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential of 39bcm.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Iranian oil production of 12.2%, with crude volumes rising towards 4.70mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period, although there will have been an OPEC-induced dip in 2009/10. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 31.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 2.27mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to climb to 265bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 17.3%, this provides export potential rising to 109bcm by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Iran now ranks fifth, ahead of Oman and Bahrain, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It holds sixth place in BMI's updated upstream ratings. Iran is five points behind Bahrain, in spite of a score benefiting from the region's biggest gas reserves base and a very healthy oil reserves position. Reserves-to-production ratios (RPRs) are high, but strict government control of the upstream industry prevents Iran's achieving a better overall score. Iran is now ranked second, behind Israel, in BMI's updated downstream ratings, with some high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is rated above Oman thanks to high scores for refining capacity, oil demand, gas consumption, retail site intensity and population. The growth outlooks for oil/gas consumption and refining capacity represent relatively weak suits. Oman is just one point behind it in the regional rankings and there is some long-term risk of it challenging for Iran's second place.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/149638_iran_oil_gas_report_q2_...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

# # #

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
End
Source: » Follow
Email:***@fastmr.com Email Verified
Zip:01267
Tags:bd, Oil, Gas, Opec, Upstream, Supply, Ratings, Wti, Contribute, Reserves
Industry:Energy, Industrial, Research
Location:Massachusetts - United States
Account Email Address Verified     Account Phone Number Verified     Disclaimer     Report Abuse
Fast Market Research PRs
Trending News
Most Viewed
Top Daily News



Like PRLog?
9K2K1K
Click to Share