New Market Research Report: Bahrain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2011

April 20, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI View: Bahrain's pharmaceutical and healthcare system is one of the most advanced and well managed in the region. However, the small size of the population, the lack of domestic manufacturing and the heightened political risk caused by unprecedented domestic calls for democracy are going to damage investor sentiment. In the short term the country will remain primarily an export target for multinational pharmaceutical companies. Patented drugs will continue to dominate the market and those targeted at obesity-related diseases will outperform. In the long term, sales growth will be driven by increased personal wealth and consumer demand, and the rapidly growing population.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: BHD63mn (US$168mn) in 2010 to BHD67mn (US$177mn) in 2011 (+5.2%). Forecast up marginally from Q211 due to macro-economic recovery risk to forecast increased by social unrest.
 * Healthcare: BHD344mn (US$915mn) in 2010 to BHD374mn (US$994mn) in 2011; +8.6% in both local currency terms and US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q211.
 * Medical devices: BHD26mn (US$69mn) in 2010 to BHD28mn (US$76mn) in 2011; +9.3% in local currency terms. Forecast up marginally from Q211 due to analyst modifications.


Business Environment Rating: Bahrain's pharmaceutical rating has increased significantly to 58.0, which is considerably above the average of 48.0 for the region. However, this is likely to fall sharply in Q311 as the political risk and the economic paralysis that result from the popular protests in the Kingdom restricts profitability and affect short-term forecasts.

Key Trends & Developments

* Sheikh Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa, the King of Bahrain, has announced a reshuffling of the country's cabinet, the effect this is expected to have on the Ministry of Health is currently unclear. The Undersecretary of Health, Abdul Hai Al Awadhi, is currently under pressure after doctors and patient groups called for his dismissal. The health minister Nizar Al Baharna has denied rumours about his possible dismissal and the government is also refuting claims that there have been interruptions to medical services as a result of the unrest. BMI will continue to monitor developments during these unprecedented times.
 * In March 2011, the King also announced the creation of 20,000 jobs, although mainly in the security forces. In a country with a population of just over 800,000 this means a fall in unemployment of 2.5%, which could feed into stronger domestic demand growth.
 * Three high-technology public hospitals are expected to be built in Bahrain by 2012, located in the Southern, Central and Northern Governorates. The hospitals are aimed at reducing the responsibilities of Salmaniya Medical Complex (SMC). This continued development of healthcare facilities, in a country that has already had some of its hospitals classified as having an exceptional standard of care shows the regimes continued strategy of investing in healthcare.


BMI Economic View: Despite oil prices having hit a two-year high in recent weeks (Brent crude was trading at US$117.40 at the time of writing), sovereign bonds for key oil exporters throughout the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have continued to sell amidst unprecedented political risk throughout the Middle East and North Africa. However, in the short term, that investors are now starting to question the fundamental stability of long-standing autocratic regimes in the GCC will likely prevent benchmark sovereign bonds from recovering to pre-crisis levels.

BMI Political View: Ongoing unrest in Bahrain has major ramifications for the Persian Gulf's geopolitics. In particular, Saudi Arabia fears that greater Shi'a influence in the state could encourage Saudi Shi'a to rise up, and strengthen Iran's position in the region. Bahrain is one of the few Gulf Arab states (as opposed to Eastern Mediterranean or North African Arab state) to have witnessed large-scale public unrest since popular uprisings toppled the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents in late January-early February 2011. The security forces had attempted to disperse demonstrators in the capital Manama's Pearl Square, but thousands of protestors remained active, as of late February.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.