Recently released market study: Cote d'Ivoire Infrastructure Report Q2 2011

April 20, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI View: As with all other sectors of the economy, the country's construction market has taken a hammering from the renewed political crisis which engulfed the country in November 2010. As we went to press, the crisis - which began when President Laurent Gbagbo's government refused to acknowledge a defeat in presidential elections against Alassane Ouattara, the principal opposition challenger - had dragged on for four months, during which time formal economic activity has slowed to a near halt. Two recent developments cause particular concern:

* In February 2011 the government unilaterally took control of branches belonging to foreign banks. As a consequence, the true parent operators of the banks suspended operations. This desperate move has created a climate of panic among investors (both domestic and foreign), who were already failing to follow through with investment plans.
 * In early March 2011, rebels took the town of Toulepleu, which sits on the border with Liberia; opposition-aligned rebels claim that they secured the town in order to prevent pro-Gbagbo mercenaries crossing into Cote d'Ivoire, but the military action took the (already-inflated) risk of a return to full-scale civil conflict up another couple of notches.


The crisis has meant that Gbagbo's government (now widely regarded as illegitimate by regional peers and Western donors) is running out of funds. Question marks now hang over his government's ability to pay the army and civil servants, so any hope of government funds being channelled into infrastructure investment over the next year or so now appear non-existent. We therefore forecast that capital investment in Cote d'Ivoire's infrastructure market will plunge by 20% in 2011. The construction sector, meanwhile, will contract by 10% in real terms.

Even accounting for these significant forecast declines in construction sector output and infrastructure investment, risks are very much to the downside. Our current core scenario, predicated on macroeconomic forecasts by our Country Risk team, envisages that a return to full-scale civil war will be avoided, with the increasing isolation of Gbagbo and the presence of a substantial United Nations troop contingent in the country acting as factors that should pull the country back from the brink. Under this scenario, a political solution - or at least a tentative stabilisation, based around a new transitional powersharing deal - would allow significant formal economic activity (including in the construction sector) to resume later this year. However, as indicated above, this scenario is by no means guaranteed, and events on the ground augur increasingly bearishly. In the event of a return to full-scale civil war, a catastrophic collapse in infrastructure (and wider construction) activity would occur over the next couple of years, and possibly beyond.

Business Environment

Cote d'Ivoire remains rooted to the bottom of our regional Business Environment Ratings. The country scores very poorly both for the Rewards category and the Risks category. There is a significant gap in terms of points before the two countries that are ranked immediately above Cote d'Ivoire. Consequently it would take a considerable improvement across a range of sub-categories for the country to move up from the bottom of our league table.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/149603_cote_divoire_infrastruc...


Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Cote D'Ivoire Infrastructure Industry SWOT
- Cote D'Ivoire Project Finance Ratings
Market Overview
Building Materials
- Global Materials
- Building Materials: Global Demand to Hit New Highs In 2011
- Africa Overview
- Strong Demand And Localised Markets To Push Prices Up
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Cote d'Ivoire Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: Cote d'Ivoire Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
- Transport Infrastructure Overview
- Major Projects Table - Transport
- Table: Major Infrastructure Projects - Transport
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
- Energy & Utilites Infrastructure Overview
- Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
- Table: Major Infrastructure Projects - Energy & Utilities
Business Environment
- Cote D'Ivoire Business Environment
- Rewards
- Risks
- Regional Overview
- Africa Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Africa Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Regional Overview
- Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Africa
- Table: Africa Overall Project Finance Rating
- Table: Design And Construction Ratings
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Cote D'Ivoire - Economic Activity
Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Company Monitor
- Bouygues Construction
Global Overview
- Table: BMI's Core Views For Global Infrastructure
Methodology
- Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Data Methodology
- New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
- Construction
- Capital Investment
- Construction Sector Employment
- Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
- Project Finance Ratings
- Table: Design And Construction Phase
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.