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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "China Metals Report Q2 2011", publishedNew Materials market report from Business Monitor International: "China Metals Report Q2 2011"
In terms of lead production, we forecast an annual average growth rate of 6.2%, reaching 5.7mnt by 2015. Yuguang Gold & Lead Co will account for much of this in production as the company plans to increase total refined lead output by 50% to 700ktpa (thousand tonnes per annum) by 2015. We expect refined lead consumption to reach 6.0mntpa in 2015, marking an average increase of 7.5% per annum. In addition, we forecast steel consumption to average 5.8% growth to 2015, reaching 745mnt, up from 561mnt in 2010. Steel production will reach 743mnt in 2015, marking average growth of 3.5% per annum from 2010 when output was 627mnt. Finally, we expect a 5.7% growth in Chinese refined tin production, reaching 186.1kt in 2015. As well as forecasting growth across all sectors, we highlight the trend of Chinese consumption outpacing production. This will mean China becomes more reliant on the import of refined metals, perhaps from Australia, one of the largest producers of refined metals. That said, China appears to be seeking greater self-sufficiency and thus we note upside risks to our forecasts for production, as the government may search for greater domestic exploration and production. There are two other risks to our outlook. First, the supply of refined metals could be at risk from efforts to increase energy efficiency and reduce power usage, as was seen at the end of 2010. Indeed, while it tends to be the smaller refineries that are less efficient, refined metal production is highly fragmented and the smaller refineries account for a substantial proportion of output. Second, our forecasts for consumption growth are in line with overall GDP growth and thus any downturn in the economy would reduce growth in base metals consumption. Our expectations for demand are therefore exposed to the effects of monetary and fiscal tightening as the Chinese government attempts to stop the economy from overheating. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Partial Table of Contents: SWOT Analysis - China Political SWOT - China Economic SWOT - China Business Environment SWOT Global Market Overview - Steel Forecast - Table: BMI's Steel Forecasts - Table: Steel Prices (US$m/t) Commodity Strategy - Metals Update - Aluminium - Copper - Lead - Nickel - Tin - Zinc - Gold Regional Overview - Table: Top 10 Asian Steel Producers, 2009 Forecast Scenario - Steel: Excess Capacity Will Be Hard To Curb - Top Producing Regions (10kt*) & Share Of Total (%) - Table: China Metals Industry Indicators and Forecasts (Steel), '000 tonnes unless stated - Aluminium - Infrastructure Development to Drive Consumption - Key Development Plans - Production Growth - Demand Growth - Copper - Production & Consumption To Maintain Rapid Growth - Key Expansion Plans - Production and Consumption Forecast - Lead - Still-Strong Growth Ahead - Main Expansion Plans - Lead Output - Lead Demand - Tin - Supply Deficit Remains Despite Increased Output - China Refined Tin Production - Nickel - Growth In Production To Slow - Nickel Production - Consumption to Slow - Nickel Demand - Macroeconomic Outlook - Table: China - Economic Activity, 2008-2015 Competitive Landscape - Steel - Iron Ore Supplies - Aluminium - Table: China's Aluminium Smelter Capacities - Financial Results Company Profiles - Chinalco - China Steel Corporation - Chung Hung Steel Commodity Forecasts - Metals Update - Aluminium - Copper - Lead - Nickel - Tin - Zinc - Gold Global Assumptions, Q211 - Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 - Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) - Developed States - Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Emerging Markets - Table: Emerging Market's GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Consensus Forecasts - Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data - Section 1: Population - Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 - Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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