Market Report, "Russia Commercial Banking Report Q2 2011", published

PRLog (Press Release) - Apr. 9, 2011 - Major Long-Term Growth Opportunities In Banking  We do not expect the recovery in the Russian banking sector to gather significant momentum until H211  at the earliest, with household and corporate demand for credit still weak, in line with stalling business  and consumer confidence. From 2012, however, we expect loan and asset growth to start gathering pace,  supporting a more broad-based recovery in the domestic economy. We hold to our core view that the  Russian banking sector offers major growth opportunities over the long term and continue to highlight  VTB and Sberbank as our favourite picks.  The recovery in the Russian banking sector remains relatively weak, with loan and asset growth failing to  rebound strongly in 2010. Although asset growth reached 10.0% y-o-y in July that year, this was well  down from even 2009 levels and indicates the sluggish nature of the recovery. Loan growth came in at  6.7% y-o-y in the same month, compared to an average 43.1% in 2004-2008.    No sector of the economy appears to be demanding a significant amount of new credit at the moment. The  slow pace of the lending recovery is fairly broad based, with loans to non-financial organisations growing  by an average of 3.8% y-o-y in January-September 2010, and lending to households contracting by an  average 2.9% y-o-y over the same period (albeit reaching 7.0% y-o-y in August).    Much of the asset growth that has been occurring has been driven by bond purchases, despite record low  yields. According to Bloomberg data, average yields on Russian corporate dollar bonds fell to 5.26% at  one point in October 2010, the lowest point since JPMorgan Chase started tracking the securities in  2002. We believe that this primarily reflects ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the recovery,  with businesses unwilling to take on new debt.  Slow Growth Over 2011  Lending and asset growth should continue to firm over the coming year, however, as real lending rates  plunged towards the end of 2010, from 5.7% in June to 2.7% in September, in line with an uptick in  inflation. We expect monetary policy to remain accommodative through the coming months, which  should provide further support for new lending. However, the sluggishness of the recovery has been  below our initial expectations and we have now revised down our 2011 asset and loan growth forecasts to  15.0% and 12.0% respectively.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/130611_russia_commercial_banki...


Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (RUBbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At October 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2011-2015 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011
- Table: Projected Levels (RUBbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Russia Commercial Banking SWOT
- Russia Political SWOT
- Russia Economic SWOT
- Russia Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Russia's Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
- Regional Outlooks
- Mergers And Acquisitions Outlook For Banks
Emerging Europe Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2009
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010 (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010e (US$)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2010-2011
Russia Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Russia Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In Russia's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Russia's 10 Largest Banks
Company Profiles
- Sberbank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- VTB
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated)
- able: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Alfa-Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Alfa-Bank, 2007-2008 (US$ '000)
- Gazprombank
- Table: Key Statistics For Gazprombank, 2007-2008 (RUBmn)
- UniCredit Bank
- ZAO Raiffeisenbank
- Table: Key Statistics For ZAO Raiffeisenbank, 2007-2008 (RUB '000)
- Promsvyazbank
- Table: Key Statistics For Promsvyazbank, 2007-2008 (RUB '000)
- Bank of Moscow
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
BMI Banking Sector Methodology
- Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

# # #

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.