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Follow on Google News | "Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011" is now available at Fast Market ResearchNew Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011"
The region consumed an estimated 123.7bcm of natural gas in 2010, with demand of 176.2bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 217.7bcm in 2010 should reach 321.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 94bcm to 145bcm in 2015. Cameroon makes no significant current contribution to regional gas supply or demand. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. Cameroon's real GDP rose by 2.6% in 2010 and BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.0% from 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 34,000b/d in 2010 to 44,000b/d in 2015. State oil company Societe Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH) operates in partnership with a small group of international oil companies (IOCs). It is also responsible for selling the government's share of oil output and holds a 20% stake in projects operated by Total, Pecten and Perenco. Thanks to IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output of around 64,000b/d in 2010 is expected to peak at 98,000b/d in 2015. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly over the longer term, potentially providing the basis for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by around 2016. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Cameroon's oil and gas liquids production of 38.4%, with volumes peaking at an estimated 98,000b/d in 2015 before slipping to 89,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 56,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 5.0bcm by the end of the period. With demand growing by a forecast 85%, there is potential for net exports of 4.6bcm by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Cameroon is at the bottom of BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares 11th and last place with Sudan. The country now takes 11th place ahead only of Sudan in the updated upstream ratings, although it is just one point behind Equatorial Guinea. The county's score benefits from reasonable gas output growth prospects, a very healthy gas reserves to production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country's risk environment is, however, fragile. Cameroon is near the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated downstream ratings, with few high scores and immediate progress unlikely. It is ranked equal eighth alongside Gabon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, nominal GDP and the absence of competition in the downstream segment. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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