New market study, "Latvia Commercial Banking Report Q2 2011", has been published

New Financial Services market report from Business Monitor International: "Latvia Commercial Banking Report Q2 2011"
 
April 4, 2011 - PRLog -- Emerging From The Storm  Latvia's banking sector continues to show signs of recovery, mirroring developments in the real  economy. We expect a return to positive growth in 2011, though with a more moderate rate of industry  expansion resulting in the sector shrinking relative to the size of the economy. We also expect deposit  growth to continue to outperform lending, which will drive down the loan-deposit ratio over the medium  term.  The broad economic stabilisation in Latvia observed through 2010 has been reflected in the banking  sector, where the rate of asset contraction appears to be slowing. Having retrenched by a peak of 8.9% yo-  y in November 2009, total industry assets fell by a more palatable 2.3% in September 2010 according to  our estimates. We have long stressed that the industry would shrink in the aftermath of the credit bubble  given the aversion of foreign lenders to prop up the demand of Latvian consumers. Moreover, we believe  that this is a necessary adjustment to restore balance in the economy and reduce the systemic risks  associated with the banking sector eclipsing the national output (assets as a percentage of GDP is just  under 160%).  While aggregate assets have fallen, the industry loan book has contracted at a far faster rate. We estimate  the total stock of outstanding loans to have fallen by 6.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2010  compared to the same month a year earlier. While marking an improvement from the 6.7% decline  recorded in July, this is in stark contrast to the 50-60% rates of growth during the credit boom years. We  believe the reduction in loans is likely to partly reflect defaults in the private sector, as well as Latvian  banks steering clear of extending fresh credit to local households and firms.  While the slowdown in loan growth will dampen economic activity, supporting our forecast for anaemic  economic growth over the medium term, it will nonetheless improve systemic stability. With the deposit  base still registering positive growth (with the 11.0% increase in September marking the fastest growth  rate since May 2008), the loan-to-deposit ratio has fallen below 200% for the first time since the  beginning of 2007.  Further reflecting the stabilisation of the industry is the return of capitalisation. The drawdown in equity  through 2009 appears to have been tentative, giving way to an increase in capital buffers. The latest data  show capital expanding by 5.5% y-o-y in September from 1.2% the previous month and reversing the  7.9% decline of July.  In terms of forecasts, we expect industry assets to return to positive growth in 2011, mirroring the broader  economic recovery. We project assets to expand by a fairly meagre 1.3%, accelerating to 5.1% by 2014.  As part of the rebalancing process, we project the industry still shrinking relative to the economy, with assets reaching 127% of GDP by 2014 from an estimated 147% in 2010. On the back of stronger growth  in deposits over lending, we expect the loan-to-deposit ratio to narrow further to 148% from 192% over  the same period.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/130601_latvia_commercial_banki...


Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (LVLbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At December 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2011-2015 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011
- Table: Projected Levels (LVLbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Latvia Commercial Banking SWOT
- Latvia Political SWOT
- Latvia Economic SWOT
- Latvia Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Latvia's Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
- Regional Outlooks
- Mergers And Acquisitions Outlook For Banks
Emerging Europe Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2009
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010 (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010e (US$)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2010-2011
Latvia Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Latvia Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Table: Protagonists In Latvia's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Authorised Banks In Latvia
Company Profiles
- Baltic International Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Baltic International Bank, 2006-2008 (LVLmn)
- DnB NORD Banka
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (LVLmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless states)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Swedbank
- Table: Key Statistics For Swedbank, 2006-2008 (LVLmn)
- SEB Banka
- Table: Key Statistics For SEB Banka, 2006-2008 (LVLmn)
- Norvik Banka
- Table: Key Statistics For Norvik Banka, 2006-2008 (LVL '000)
- Danske Banka
- Table: Key Statistics For Danske Banka, 2006-2008 (LVL/DKK '000)
- Komercbanka Baltikums
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1306...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:Asset, Loan, Banking, Deposit, Credit, Mirroring, Latvian, Marking, Loan-to-deposit, Shrinking
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