New Market Study Published: Germany Telecommunications Report Q2 2011

April 1, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI's Q211 update on Germany's telecommunications market provides an overview of the latest developments in the country's mobile, fixed voice and broadband sectors. Our report also contains fiveyear growth forecasts which depict how Germany's mobile telephony, fixed-line telephony, internet and broadband subscriber markets will develop over the next few years.

At the time of writing, only two of four of Germany's mobile operators released subscriber data for the final three months of 2010. In the three months to 30 December 2010, Vodafone Germany and KPNowned E-Plus reported positive growth from their respective mobile customer base. By contrast, German incumbent operator Deutsche Telekom and Spain's Telefonica had yet to publish operational data for the final quarter of 2010.

At the end of September 2010 Germany's mobile market had about 107.102mn subscribers, reflecting a net loss of 610,000 subscribers in the third quarter of that year. BMI continues to estimate that Germany had 106.8mn mobile customers at the end of 2010, equivalent to a penetration rate of 130.9%. Our estimate is based on the assumption that the final quarter of 2010 continued the pattern of negative growth experienced by market leader T-Mobile. Germany's largest mobile network operator reported a significant net loss of customers in each of the first three quarters of 2010. The large subscriber losses have been attributed to inactive SIM discounting. By comparison, Germany's three other mobile operators - Vodafone, E-Plus and Telefonica O2 Germany - all reported strong net additions in the quarter. Despite this, all three operators continued to report worsening subscriber mixes, pointing to a vigorous drive at attracting prepaid customers to boost market share.

In May 2010 three of Germany's mobile network operators - Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and O2 - were awarded new mobile frequencies in the 800MHz spectrum range. Since then, all three operators have begun deploying Long Term Evolution (LTE) networks, with a view to extending mobile broadband services to remote parts of Germany. Although Germany's smallest cellco E-Plus was not awarded spectrum in the 800MHz band, it was announced in December that E-Plus had been authorised by Germany's regulator to use frequencies in the 900MHz band for mobile data transmission services. It is understood that E-Plus first plans to deploy a HSPA+ network using the 900MHz spectrum, offering maximum download speeds of 21.6Mbps. E-Plus can also use the 900MHz frequencies to roll out LTE technology, if this does not cause interference with other mobile networks.

One development which has been met with criticism among Germany's mobile network operators was the news in December that Germany's network regulator, the Federal Network Agency (FNA) proposed a 50% cut in mobile termination rates (MTRs). The move aimed to bring the fees in line with European Commission targets. Amongst other, the timing of the regulator's decision has been criticised because it coincides with preparations by the operators to invest in fourth-generation networks.

Following revisions in our last update, our forecast for Germany's broadband subscriber sector remains unchanged this quarter. We estimate Germany had 30.6mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2010, equivalent to a penetration rate of 37.5%. We predict the market will grow by about 9% in 2011, with penetration expected to rise to almost 41% by the end of that year. It should be noted our broadband subscriber forecast for Germany now includes mobile broadband subscribers. These are broadband subscribers who use netbooks, smartphones and USB sticks to connect to the internet wirelessly via a high-speed (3G/HSPA) network.

There have been a number of developments during the past few months, with implications for Germany's broadband market. In early February it appeared certain the market was set for further consolidation following the news that cable operator Kabel BW had interest from a number of possible bidders ahead of a potential sale by the cableco's Swedish owners EQT. The interested parties include US-based Liberty Global Inc (LGI), which already owns the country's second largest cable operator Unitymedia, German cableco Kabel Deutschland (KDG) and private equity firms Apax Partners, CVC Capital Partners and Hellman Friedman. According to Dow Jones, the potential sale of Kabel BW was due to enter a second round of bidding in mid-February. Meanwhile, it was announced in January that German cable operators PrimaCom and Tele Columbus had completed separate financial restructuring processes. As a result, the two operators plan new network investments and upgrades.

Germany fell from sixth to eighth position in our BMI's Business Environment Rankings table for Western Europe for this quarter. The country is at the mid-point in our table just above Switzerland. In addition to other countries receiving higher scores this quarter, Germany's position has been negatively affected by a lower Country Rewards rating.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/128719_germany_telecommunicati...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.