Recently released market study: Chile Freight Transport Report Q2 2011

New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
 
March 29, 2011 - PRLog -- Our forecasts for consumption in Chile over the next five years are among the strongest in Latin America and, in combination with the country's market-friendly economic policies and healthy macroeconomic outlook, this explains why our 2011 forecasts for the country's freight transport sector remain positive. Nevertheless, while Chile's infrastructure is excellent by regional standards, BMI maintains its view that further investment in the sector is needed as demands on Chile's transport infrastructure will increase in line with the growth of its trade sector and consumer base.

Headline Industry Data

* Air freight tonnage forecast to rise 11.5% in 2011, with average growth of 10.4% over the next five years;
 * Air freight tonnes/km forecast to increase 2.1% in 2011, with average growth of 2.2% over the next five years;
 * Total tonnes at the Port of Valparaiso forecast to rise 17% in 2011, with average growth of 14% over the next five years;
 * Total tonnes at the Port of San Antonio forecast to rise 9% in 2011, with average growth of 8% over the next five years;
 * Rail freight tonnes forecast to rise 1.1% in 2011, with average growth of 2.64% over the next five years;
 * Rail freight tonnes/km forecast to grow 2% in 2011, with average growth of 4% over the next five years;


Key Industry Trends

Rail

Arica Set To Capture Rising Bolivian Exports With La Paz Rail Link

Cosma Chile has begun the first phase of the reconstruction of the Arica-La Paz railway, rebuilding the Chilean stretch of the railroad. When completed, the railway will allow cargo to be freighted directly from the Bolivian capital, La Paz, to Chile's port of Arica and from there on to import-hungry Asia. The project involves replacing rails and sleepers along a 205km stretch of the Chilean section. The US$32mn project is expected to take 23 months to complete and the railroad should begin operations in May 2012. According to EPA, Arica's port authority, the railroad will allow Arica to offer multimodal services to Bolivian exporters at a lower price and with more security and speed. The railroad is designed to carry 250,000 tonnes of freight a year, making it a significant project for the development of local logistics.

Maritime

Future Looks Bright For Port of Arica

BMI believes the Chilean port of Arica is continuing efforts to establish itself as a regional hub, and is implementing the first version of a new port community system (PCS) in September this year. The port has been increasing its profile as a centre for exports from landlocked Bolivia and for Chilean copper exports. Cargo handling at the port has increased 85% in recent years and we believe the port will continue its upward trajectory.

Arica plans to be the first Chilean port to implement a new PCS, according to the president of stateowned port operator Empresa Portuaria Arica (EPA), Francisco Javier Gonzalez. The Arica port community (CPA), which is made up of various public and private entities involved with the port, is investing some CLP70mn (US$148,000) to develop the PCS version 1.0 prototype.

Port Infrastructure To Benefit As Mining Companies Seek Control Of Supply Chains

BMI believes that MPX's announcement that it is to build a coal and iron ore port in Northern Chile is a further step in parent company EBX's drive to consolidate control over its supply chains. This is a trend we have seen across Latin America, as mining companies faced with inadequate infrastructure in mineralrich countries push to develop logistics to serve their production centres. With mining developments in the region boosted by continued Asian demand, this is a trend we expect to continue in the medium term.

Risks To Outlook

The main downside risk to our outlook is a possible drop-off in global demand, with Chile's exportfocused economy particularly exposed to any secondary slowdown in China. Chinese demand for strategic raw materials such as copper helped prop up Chilean growth during 2009 and the country has now overtaken the US as Chile's main export destination. Any reduction in Chinese GDP growth will have a knock-on effect on its demand for raw materials and therefore, a negative effect on Chile's freight transport sector.

The main upside risks to our forecast comes from growing demand from Chile's consumers. Q310 data shows private consumption continuing to drive growth rates in Chile, contributing 8.46 percentage points (pp) to the headline figure, by far the largest contribution. Going forward, we expect private consumption to increase by 5.4% y-o-y in 2011 and 5.0% y-o-y in 2012 as wages increase country-wide and unemployment continues on its downward trajectory (over 300,000 new jobs were added in 2010, according to preliminary figures). A host of leading indicators, such as supermarket sales and new vehicles sales, showed the consumer sector strengthening further in 2010, and we anticipate a similar performance in 2011 and 2012. We believe this bodes well for the country's longer-term economic prospects and for its transport sector.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/128707_chile_freight_transport...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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