"China Agribusiness Report Q2 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

March 25, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI View: China's agriculture industry will continue to be strongly driven by government policies in its drive to ensure national food security, especially in grains self-sufficiency. Rising incomes and increased urbanisation should lead to significant increases in livestock (especially pork) and milk consumption, which in turn should lead to continued production increases in grains (with soybean outperforming) for feed. We expect the country to be increasingly reliant on imports for soybean and dairy products.

Key Forecasts

* Corn production growth to 2015: 22.8%. Growth will be fuelled by demand growth in the livestock sector. Increased acceptance of genetically-modified (GM) products should also boost production prospects in the long run.
 * Pork and poultry production growth to 2015: 23.0% and 25.0% respectively. Continued consolidation of the Chinese meat industry should support large scale production and increase efficiencies of scale in production so as to meet the growing demand of a national diet that is increasing its protein intake.
 * Whole milk powder consumption growth to 2015: 70.0%. This growth will be driven by rising domestic demand for long shelf-life dairy production, as well as greater consolidation of the sector, along with the entry of foreign firms that will improve efficiency.
 * 2011 Forecast Real GDP Growth: 8.3%.
 * Consumer Price Inflation: 4.9% y-o-y in January 2011.


Industry Developments

Drought at the time of this writing is affecting the outlook for the 2010/11 grains outlook. Given that it is still at the beginning or early stages of planting for crops like corn and wheat, we are still maintaining our forecast and will continue to monitor the situation closely. We also note that the government has started to embark on measures to encourage farmers to water their crops, such as giving out financial aid and subsidies.

Health and safety concerns still remain on top of the government's agenda in improving the industry. A recent national survey which revealed that nearly 70% of the Chinese public does not feel confident about food safety underscores this need. In Q410, authorities from the Dairy Association of China claimed that video networks linking livestock services at municipal and county levels, dairy enterprises and milk stations in Shijiazhuang, the capital of Hebei Province would be implemented by end-2010. And in a latest move to increase health and safety standards of the industry, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) has called on all domestic dairy companies to renew their production licenses this year or face closure.

Rising disposable incomes have had a pronounced impact on sugar consumption in China, as growth in the sector is being fuelled by the country's mass market industries, such as soft drinks and confectionary. Over the forecast period through to 2015, we expect consumption to rise by 28.7% to reach 19.94mn tonnes. This will be the result of increases in soft drinks and confectionary consumption, of which we forecast volume sales to increase by 77% from US$2.2bn to US$3.9bn and double from US$22bn to US$43bn respectively from their 2009 levels.

The government has laid down plans to comprehensively transform the country's largely backward and manually-driven livestock industry into a modern, efficient one in the next five years. BMI notes that most of the investment will be channelled into the pork sector.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
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Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- China Agricultural SWOT
- China Political SWOT
- China Economic SWOT
- China Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- China Sugar Outlook
- Table: China - Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- China Dairy Outlook
- Table: China - Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: China - Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: China - Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
- China Soybean Outlook
- Table: China - Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
- China Rice Outlook
- Table: China - Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- China Grains Outlook
- Table: China - Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- China Livestock Outlook
- Table: China - Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: China - Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
- Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
- Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa
- Table: Cocoa
- Coffee
- Table: Coffee
- Milk
- Table: Milk
- Sugar
- Table: Sugar
- Grains Update
- Corn
- Table: Corn
- Rice
- Table: Rice
- Soybean
- Table: Soybean
- Wheat
-

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1271...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.