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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "Indonesia Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", publishedNew Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region is expected to have consumed 493bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010. Demand of 647bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 81bcm to 99bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Indonesia's share of gas consumption in 2010 is expected to have been 7.74%, while its share of production is put at 18.46%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.48%, with the country accounting for 14.60% of supply. Preliminary data suggest that the 2010 full year outturn will have been US$77.38 per barrel for OPEC crude, which is expected to have delivered North Sea Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averages of around US$79.40/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up the demand for and price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. The oil market is now in a bullish mood despite the economic uncertainty facing the world in 2011. Global GDP growth in 2011 should exceed 3%, but is unlikely to match the level seen in 2010. Slower economic expansion in China and Japan is set to undermine a potentially unchanged rate of growth in the US and Eurozone. Oil prices seldom reflect underlying macroeconomic trends, but the case for surging energy demand and spiralling fuel costs is far from convincing. Ample oil inventories and increasing OPEC supply are likely to keep the price of crude in check - and we are sticking with our forecast of an average US$80/bbl for the OPEC basket. BMI assumes Indonesian real GDP growth of 5.8% in 2010. We foresee average annual growth of 6.1% in 2010-2015. Efforts are being made by the Indonesian authorities to encourage investment in new oil and gas supply, in order to stem the decline in production. Numerous international oil companies (IOCs) work in partnership with national oil company Pertamina and the state. We are estimating oil and gas liquids production of no more than 920,000b/d by 2015, although the country is expected to have pumped 1.03mn b/d in 2010. Consumption is forecast to increase by up to 2.5% per annum to 2015. Our estimates imply demand of 1.52mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 601,000b/d by 2015. Gas production, rising to an estimated 80bcm by 2015, should provide end-period export potential of 32bcm, with supply risk on the downside. Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast a reduction in Indonesian oil production of 23.86%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 785,000b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 23.10%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.68mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 76bcm in 2010 to a peak of 90bcm by 2017-20. With demand growth of 70.00%, this provides an export capability peaking at 46.4bcm in 2011, before falling to 25.2bcm by 2020, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report. Indonesia is now ranked equal eighth, alongside Japan and Pakistan, in BMI's composite Business Environment Rating (BER) league table. This reflects its share of eighth place with China in BMI's updated upstream ratings, with a relatively strong resource position offset by poor output growth prospects, a deteriorating reserves-to- For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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