Russia Defence & Security Report Q2 2011: New research report available at Fast Market Research

March 24, 2011 - PRLog -- Russian defence policy and military doctrine is defined by the State Programme of Armaments (GPV- 2015), published in 2010. Russia's defence industry has to date been an export -rather than import- driven entity, but this is expected to change with increasing multinational involvement as the sector focuses on all aspects of military planning, expenditure and modernisation.

The government should remain broadly stable over the coming year. Nevertheless, the big political unknown is whether President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will both contest the presidency in March 2012. Neither of the two men have ruled this out, meaning that there could be increased jockeying between their two camps. Any sign of public disagreement between the two leaders could heighten political uncertainty for investors.

On the security front, we remain concerned about the high level of violence in the North Caucasus. An attack by Islamist militants on the Chechen parliament in Grozny marks the latest in a series of violent incidents in Russia's North Caucasus, supporting our view that the security situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. The militants' boldness in striking at the heart of Chechen political power will provide a stark warning to Moscow that its control over the restive republic is far from absolute, despite improvements in the past few years. Moreover, the demonstrated ability of militants in the North Caucasus to attack prominent and highly defended targets will weigh on investor confidence, limiting the region's ability to attract foreign investment for the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014.

Despite considerable federal subsidies to improve local economies, repressive security measures, and the elimination of key militant operatives, Kremlin-appointed regional leaders have failed to rein in the current insurgency. The main hotspots will remain Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan. However, other republics are coming under strain. A suicide bombing in the predominantly Christian republic of North Ossetia-Alania on September 9 threatens to increase long-standing tensions between the Ossetians and the Ingush.

There have also been tensions in the republics of Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachai-Cherkessia, where the Circassian people (who are spread throughout the North Caucasus) have been making renewed calls to create a common republic. Any attempt by the Circassians to reorganise local borders could prove highly destabilising, given the diverse population of the Caucasus, and is unlikely to be tolerated. The Circassians are also seeking an international boycott of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, noting that that year marks the 150th anniversary of their 'genocide' at Russia's hands. Overall, we see no let up to the troubles in the region.

We hold to our core view that the pace of the Russian recovery will remain relatively subdued in 2011, with growth forecast to hit 4.3%, from an estimated 4.1% in 2010. Although investment and private consumption will continue to recover, a return to pre-crisis growth levels remains firmly off the cards. We maintain that the recovery in private demand will be slow through to H211 at the earliest, though expect this component of GDP to perform strongly from 2012 onwards as domestic drivers of growth become increasingly important.

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Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Russia Security SWOT
- Russia Defence Industry SWOT
- Russia Political SWOT
- Russia Economic SWOT
- Russia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- The United States
- China
- Japan And The Koreas
- Russia
- Europe
- India
- Brazil
- Turkey
- Iran
- Egypt, Saudi Arabia And Pakistan
- Terrorism
- Africa
- Space
- Competition
- Wild Card In Global Politics
- Conclusion
Europe Security Overview
- Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- Europe In A Global Context
- Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Security Risk Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Russia's Security Ratings
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
- External Security Situation
- United States
- Nuclear Reductions
- NATO
- Central Asia
- China
- The Arctic
- Global Relations
- Great Power
- Russia's Strategic Options
- Russia's New Military Doctrine And NATO's Response
- Internal Security
Armed Forces
- Armed Forces
- Historical Strength
- International Deployments
- Table: Russia's Foreign Deployments 2008
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Key Players In Russia's Defence Sector, 2005
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
- Table: Russia's Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Russia's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
- Defence Expenditure
- Table: Russia's Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
- Table: Russia's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (US$mn)
- Defence Trade
- Table: Russia's Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
- Table: Russia's Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
- Table: Russia's Defence Trade Balance 2008-2015
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1272...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.