Russia's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$1,688.1bn in 2011, with growth of 4.3% expected, up from 4.1% in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.4% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2015. Although the population is forecast to decrease, from 141.2mn in 2011 to an estimated 139.0mn by 2015, GDP per capita is predicted to rise through to the end of the forecast period, reaching US$21,834.
The country's large population - and the affluent urban population of Moscow in particular - is providing a solid base for the expansion of the retail market. Russia has 13 cities with more than 1mn people and consumers are increasingly looking to modern retail outlets for aspirational purchases.
In 2005, 37% of the Russian population was in the 20-44 age range, according to UN Population Division data, and this is estimated to have increased slightly in 2010 to 38%. This segment of the population is a key element for future retail spending. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as economically active was 71% in 2005 and an estimated 73% in 2010.
BMI food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 33.7% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$209.14bn in 2011 and sales are expected to grow by 66.4% to US$348.09bn by 2015. Our forecasts suggest an increase in the retail market share of food to 44.9% by 2015.
According to BMI data, over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales will reach an estimated US$5.97bn in 2011 and are forecast to increase by 50.2% to US$8.97bn in 2015.
The consumer electronics sector is predicted to expand by 52.0%, from an estimated US$18.42bn in 2011 to US$27.99bn by the end of the forecast period. The market has huge potential because of its sheer size, with a population of more than 140mn people. Computers will be the main growth driver, with PC penetration expected to reach 30% during the forecast period.
Vehicle sales are forecast to increase by 49.3%, from an estimated US$89.41bn in 2011 to US$133.47bn towards the end of the period as low car ownership levels reflect untapped potential for growth.
The availability of consumer credit is allowing an increasing number of Russians to make luxury purchases. Press reports said that Russia's second largest lender, VTB, expected to have doubled its consumer credit portfolio to U$13bn in 2009 through its retail banking unit VTB24. However, a leading politician told a Moscow conference in June 2010 that Russia needs a law to encourage retailers to accept credit cards and penalise those that do not. Many retail outlets, even large ones in Moscow, do not accept card payments.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,280bn based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI's macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,206bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 79% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to fall only slightly, to 78%, by 2015. Russia's predicted market share of 48.5% in 2011 is expected to rise slightly, to 48.9%, by 2015.
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Partial Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis
- Russia Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Russia Political SWOT
- Russia Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Russia's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Russia Retail Indicators, 2007-2015
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2011f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Russia Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2008-2015
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2008-2015
- Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
- Russia Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Russia's Top 10 Mass Grocery Retailers
- Leading Retailers
- Table: Structure Of Russia's MGR By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2000-2009
- Table: Annual Average Value Of Sales By Format, 2009
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2008-2015
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Russia Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: PC Sales, 2007-2015
- Audio/Video
- Table: AV Sales, 2007-2015
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Communications, 2007-2015
- Industry Forecast Senario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2015 (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Russia Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Production And Sales
- Table: Autos Production, 2007-2015 (CBUs)
- Table: Autos Sales, 2007-2015 (CBUs)
- Trade
- Table: AutosTrade, 2005-2014
Country Snapshot: Russia Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2006
BMI Methodology
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/
About Fast Market Research
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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
