Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q2 2011: New research report available at Fast Market Research

March 20, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI View: The Kazakhstan government is showing impressive determination to boost the country's livestock industry and ensure Kazakhstan regains its place as a key grains producer. We are forecasting strong growth for poultry and beef, both industries that are receiving close attention. The country's cattle stock is being boosted by US genetics, while the poultry industry is receiving support in terms of subsidies, import tariffs and finance. We caution that a Customs Union with Russia poses some risk to the livestock industry.

Key forecasts

* Beef production expected to expand 34.7% over our forecast period, reaching 529,000 tonnes in 2015. Poultry expected to be the livestock outperformer, with output increasing 44.0% to reach 144,000 tonnes in 2015.
 * Pork growth to be more modest. From a base of 230,000 tonnes in 2010, we expect production to rise 13.7% to reach 278,000 in 2015, widening the trade balance.
 * A 37% decline in wheat production is forecast for 2010/11, when we expect Kazakhstan to harvest 10.8mn tonnes following 2010's drought.
 * High wheat prices will be tempting for exporters, but the political risk involved in allowing prices to rocket means President Nursultan Nazarbayev will likely ensure domestic supply is maintained. We are therefore forecasting only a slight dip in wheat consumption in 2011 to 7.4mn tonnes and expect the trade balance to fall to 3.96mn tonnes.
 * The same season, barley production to fall to 1.5mn tonnes, down 44% y-o-y. Corn to fall to 308,000 tonnes, down 35% year-on-year.
 * Over the forecast period, milk production is expected to increase 18.3%. Growth will be driven by ongoing sector commercialisation.


Industry developments

Astana has ambitious plans to build up the country's poultry industry and reduce reliance on imports. The government's approach involves subsidising production, imposing a tiered tariff system on imports and helping to finance new production facilities. The country also plans to ramp up exports to Russia - the world's second-largest meat importer. The Customs Union between Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus, implemented in 2010, will make this goal easier to achieve, although Kazakh producers claim the union puts them at risk of being wiped out by Russian imports.

A Russian ban on wheat exports remains in place and may be extended for the rest of 2011. This is benefiting Kazakh producers, with prices forecast by some analysts to reach US$350 per tonne by spring 2011. This is likely to lead to a significant rise in wheat plantings for 2011/12.

Milk productivity took a hit during the second half of the year due to knock-on effects from the devastating drought. In 2011 we expect that dynamic to remain in play. Feed supply remains tight and prices for grains are rising. We therefore expect this to continue to weigh on productivity and deter investment in the short term.

In partnership with US cattle breeders, the country has launched an ambitious plan to improve its bovine genetics. The country is set to receive more than 2,000 Angus and Hereford cows from North Dakota, which has a similarly harsh climate to Kazakhstan. In October the first 170 pregnant cows and heifers were flown from Fargo, North Dakota to Astana. The new stock should have a powerful impact on the quality of Kazakhstan beef.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/127215_kazakhstan_agribusiness...


Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Kazakhstan Political SWOT
- Kazakhstan Economic SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Kazakhstan Grains Outlook
- Kazakhstan Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Kazakhstan Corn Production & Consumption
- Kazakhstan Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Kazakhstan Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Kazakhstan Corn Production & Consumption
- Kazakhstan Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Kazakhstan Livestock Outlook
- Kazakhstan Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Kazakhstan Pork Production & Consumption
- Kazakhstan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Kazakhstan Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Kazakhstan Pork Production & Consumption
- Kazakhstan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Kazakhstan Diary Outlook
- Kazakhstan Milk Production & Consumption
- Kazakhstan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
- Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
- Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa
- Table: Cocoa
- Coffee
- Table: Coffee
- Milk
- Table: Milk
- Sugar
- Table: Sugar
- Grains Update
- Corn
- Table: Corn
- Rice
- Table: Rice
- Soybean
- Table: Soybean
- Wheat
- Table: Wheat
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Risks to Outlook
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Kazakhstan, Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data and Forecasts, 2006-2015
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Trade
- Table: Kazakhstan, Food & Drink Trade Balance -- Historical Data and Forecasts, 2007-2015
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Kazakhstan - Economic Activity
Global Food & Drink View
- Food & Drink Roundup Q410: Core Views
- BMI Food & Drink Core Views
BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.