"Argentina Shipping Report Q2 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
 
Feb. 26, 2011 - PRLog -- The Argentine economy grew vigorously in the first half of 2010, but we see the pace slowing down significantly in 2011, with the possibility of a 'hard landing' in 2012. The outlook for the country's ports and shipping sector is therefore somewhat bearish. A key part of the scenario is political: the government of President Cristina Kirchner faces presidential elections in October 2011, and in the run-up to that date the administration is pump-priming the economy through a series of measures we consider unsustainable (such as 'raiding' the Central Bank foreign currency reserves to boost public spending).

Worryingly, we also believe that some of the imbalances in the economy are currently being underreported (for example we believe consumer price inflation is not fully reflected in the official data). Our core macroeconomic conviction about the Argentine economy remains firmly in place: until the current policy mix comes to an end, Argentina will fail to achieve sustainable growth, and as a result find itself lagging behind more politically and economically stable regional peers beyond 2012. With major macroeconomic adjustments it is a matter of when rather than if, in our view, that hard landing arrives.

BMI forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 4.1% in Argentina (following on from a very strong 8% during the previous year). Out outlook for 2012 is for growth to weaken further to 2%. In the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average 2.5% per annum, implying that Argentina will be one of the laggards among the major economies of South America.

At the Port of Buenos Aires (POBA) total tonnage throughput rose by an estimated 9.3% in 2010; however, in 2011 growth is forecast to slow down to 3.2% taking total tonnage handled to 11.113mn tonnes. Labour disputes are a cause for concern and a downside risk to our projections. At the Port of Bahia Blanca (POBB) we are also expecting a sharp slowdown in tonnage growth in 2011. After expanding by 12.1% in 2010, we believe growth will fall to 2.2% this year, with tonnage reaching 11.568mn tonnes.

A similar pattern is expected in container throughput at POBA to that of total tonnage handling. Box throughput, which increased by 8.9% y-o-y in 2010, is projected to grow by a rather less impressive 3.2% to 1.02mn TEUs. At Bahia Blanca container growth trends have been far more volatile, which reflects the fact that the port's box terminal only came online a few years ago. Since coming online in December 2007, throughput volumes have grown rapidly despite the global economic downturn and were estimated to have increased by 56.2% in 2010. With the terminal nearing full capacity, growth is expected to be much slower and is forecast to fall to single digits in 2011, growing by 8% y-o-y.

Argentina's total trade (imports plus exports) rebounded strongly in 2010, growing by an estimated 13.5% y-o-y despite trade disputes including China's import ban on Argentine soya oil. A stumbling Argentine and global economic recovery is expected to put the brakes on the country's trade volumes in 2011, however. This year we see exports expanding by just 5% in real terms, compared with 12.0% last year as overseas demand for Argentine goods falls. BMI expects imports to be constrained by the low growth of domestic demand and foreign exchange shortages and so we predict imports to grow by 7% against 2010's 15.0% increase. Total trade in 2011 is predicted to expand by 6%. In nominal terms, exports will gain by 7.9% in 2011 to reach US$85.49bn, while imports will rise 9.6% to US$66.65bn. Argentina will therefore register a sizeable trade surplus - a state of affairs that we see being repeated for the rest of the forecast period, as the authorities seek to maximise foreign currency earnings.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/126827_argentina_shipping_repo...


Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Argentina Shipping SWOT
- Argentina Political SWOT
- Argentina Economic SWOT
- Argentina Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
- Container Industry Overview
- Table: Floating Back To The Yards - New Orders
- Dry Bulk Shipping Overview
- Table: Expansion Ahoy - Tata NYK Shipping Fleet Overview
- Table: Chief Importers Primary Destinations for Gladstone's Coal Exports
- Liquid Bulk Shipping Overview
Industry Trends and Developments
Market Overview
- Port Of Buenos Aires
- Overview
- Shipping
- Congestion
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
- Port Of Bahia Blanca
- Overview
- Shipping
- Congestion
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
- Macro
- Total Tonnage
- Container Throughput
- Trade
- Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2015
- Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn) 2002-2008
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn) 2002-2008
Company Profiles
- A.P. MOLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- CSAV Shipping
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company
- Hanjin Shipping
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:Tonnage, Argentine, Port, Disputes, Shipping, Box, Currency, Blanca, Landing, Poba
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