New market study, "Indonesia Tourism Report Q1 2011", has been published

Feb. 25, 2011 - PRLog -- Core Forecasts

A total of 6,358,933 tourists visited Indonesia over the January-November 2010 period, representing an increase of 11.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to figures from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). This continued strength in visitor arrival numbers underlines our continued bullish stance towards Indonesian tourism. Hotel occupancy rates have also remained firm, hitting a year-high 54.41% in July 2010 for an average (over the first 10 months of the year) of 50.33%.

If the tourist arrivals performance over the first 11 months of the year were replicated over the full year, this would indicate full-year arrivals in the order of 6.94mn for 2010. We are slightly more optimistic than this, believing that the country can welcome just over 7mn tourists, once all final data are released. This would represent annual growth in the order of 10% y-o-y. Historically, December has been a strong month for inbound tourism, which should boost overall arrival numbers for 2010.

For 2011, we continue to target strong growth in tourist arrival numbers, believing that growth in the order of 9.4% y-o-y is probable, taking total tourist arrivals for the year to around the 7.7mn mark. This target is in line with the government's own aims to attract 7.7mn tourists to Indonesia through the year. After two strong years of growth in 2010 and 2011, our core forecast is then for Indonesia to consolidate recent gains with a more measured rate of tourist arrival growth, to reach a total of 8.8mn tourists by end- 2015.

New 2011 Marketing Plan Unveiled

At the end of 2010, Indonesia's Minister of Culture and Tourism, Jero Wacik, announced the launch of a new tourism campaign for 2011: 'Wonderful Indonesia'. Wacik believes that this branding will be stronger than the 'Visit Indonesia' campaign slogan used over 2009 and 2010 as it reflects the country's 'beautiful nature, unique culture, varied food, hospitable people and price competitiveness in various kinds of services', according to a recent report in the Jakarta Post. Wacik is hopeful that the country can generate some US$8.3bn in tourism receipts over 2011, with half of this income to be generated from the country's meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions (MICE) market. According to the Jakarta Post, there are some 600 MICE events scheduled to be held in Indonesia in 2011.

Wacik has also stressed Jakarta's increasing promotion of eco-cultural tourism, citing the Komodo National Park as a destination that will be heavily promoted in 2011, alongside the country's 'Visit Museum Year' campaign.

Adding to positive sentiment surrounding Indonesian tourism as we enter 2011, Director General for Tourism Destination Development, Firmansyah Rahim, was quoted by local media as saying that the country plans to widen runways at a number of airports (including Selangit in North Sumatra, Wakatobi in Southeast Sulawesi and Toraja in South Sulawesi) to accommodate larger aircraft.

Although we are slightly less bullish on the outlook for 2011 tourism revenues than Tourism Minister Wacik (currently targeting a figure around US$7.95bn) BMI believes that the above government plans will do much to improve Indonesia's tourism offering over 2011, and could do much to see the country rise up our Business Environment Ratings for the Asia Pacific region over the coming years.

Bullish Outlook For Hotel Industry

For 2011-12, there are an expected 13 new hotel openings scheduled for Jakarta, according to the local hotel and restaurant industry association (PHRI), with a further six to be built in Surabaya. The PHRI has also stated that local players Santika and Sahid are to build some 40 new hotels across the archipelago over the coming two years, with the industry also witnessing strong interest from foreign investors.

In this context, there is currently a great deal of construction activity in the high-end hotel sector on the island of Bali, which is due to host the 2013 APEC summit. To prepare for the arrival of high-ranking dignitaries to the island, there are a spate of new high-end hotels scheduled for opening in 2011, including Starwood Hotels' W Retreat & Spa Bali at Seminyak and Pullman Hotels' Bali Legian Nirwana. The W Retreat & Spa Bali will be a 237 room and suite property situated in the south of the island, near Denpasar. The Bali Legian Nirwana is a five-star 315 room and suite property situated in Kuta. Other high-end hotel chains set to open new properties in Bali over 2011-13 include Banyan Tree, IHG, Ritz Carlton and Kempinski. The arrival of additional high-end properties should do much to boost average room revenues for the island.

Garuda IPO Announced

In January 2011, Garuda Indonesia announced its long-awaited US$500mn IPO, as the company looks to take advantage of current buoyant sentiment on the local Jakarta Stock Exchange. The airline also recently concluded the financial restructuring of some US$277mn in debt obligations during December 2010. Garuda is looking to float around 35% of its total equity and plans to list on the JKSE on February 11 2011 according to local media reports.

Certainly, the launch of an IPO is a positive signal that the airline has been successful in turning its business around from the dark times of the mid-2000s, when its debt burden threatened it with bankruptcy. However it will not be until February that we will discover how well-subscribed the offer has been and whether there has been any interest from foreign airlines in the Indonesian flag carrier.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/126875_indonesia_tourism_repor...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.