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New Market Research Report: Hungary Business Forecast Report Q2 2011

New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 
PRLog - Feb. 17, 2011 - Fidesz Mandate Secure Through To  2014  T he Q1 2011 Hungary Business Forecast Report highlights continued  weakness in the country's macroeconomic recovery and we have  lowered our growth forecast for 2010 to 0.8% from 1.1% previously.  Over the medium term, growth will continue to be hampered by a  fragile household sector, a banking system constrained by new  taxes and capped government spending. While the trade account  is expected to remain supportive of growth given the sustained  weakness of the forint and low propensity for spending from Hungarians,  our expectation for a broad slowdown in global growth will  limit the extent to which net exports can save the day. We hold to  our expectation for growth to average only 2.4% through to 2015.  T he centre-right Fidesz party's comprehensive victory in municipal  elections on October 3 has strengthened the party's control over the  policymaking process and secured a mandate for the government  through to 2014. However, the administration now faces an uphill  struggle in its attempts to alleviate investors' concerns over the  country's fiscal and debt dynamics as well as the pace of economic  recovery. Ultimately, financial markets will punish any misstep from  the Fidesz government, which would most likely push the administration  back to the negotiation table with the IMF and the EU .  Hungary's current account is on course to register a surplus of 1.6%  of GDP in 2010 and remain in surplus in 2011 as a result of continued  fiscal retrenchment and private sector deleveraging. Despite the  government breaking off negotiations with the IMF and the EU over  the renewal of an external financing deal in July, we do not see broad  risks to the stability of Hungary's balance of payments at this juncture.  However, while foreign direct investment is set to begin returning to  Hungary over the medium term, weak external financing conditions  (relative to before the global economic crisis) will inhibit the country's  ability to run large current account deficits over the next five years.  D espite the recent uptick in loan growth, we expect conditions in  the Hungarian banking sector to remain tough over the medium  term. The weak state of Hungary's macroeconomy, specifically the  household sector, will weigh on asset growth and loan book quality,  in turn impacting on profitability. Loans denominated in foreign  currency are particularly vulnerable to losses due to forint weakness  on borrowers' debt obligations.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/123230_hungary_business_foreca...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

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Tags:loan, fidesz, weakness, negotiation, debt, weak, imf, conditions, mandate, external
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