Market Report, "Portugal Telecommunications Report Q1 2011", published

New Fixed Networks market report from Business Monitor International: "Portugal Telecommunications Report Q1 2011"
 
Feb. 4, 2011 - PRLog -- The mobile market in Portugal has been a story of explosive growth for a number of years with one of the highest penetration rates in Western Europe. Over the coming five years, however, that rapid growth is set to be replaced by a more moderate uptick in mobile subscriber numbers. Subscriber numbers were estimated to have climbed just 3.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 17.156mn in 2010. This yielded a penetration rate of 166.5%, meaning that market saturation is as much to blame for the slowdown as the global financial crisis which has hit the periphery states in the eurozone especially hard.

BMI is forecasting the slowdown in growth to last the duration of the newly-extended forecast period to 2015. In 2011 meanwhile, we are forecasting the mobile subscriber numbers to climb by 2.7% to 17.622mn. This is equal to a penetration rate of 169.8%.

Against the backdrop of slowing growth in the mobile market, there is one emerging bright spot for operators: 3G. After a strong growth performance to the end of 2009, we are expecting a 29.2% y-o-y increase in the number of registered 3G subscribers in 2010 to 7.74mn. Furthermore, we are forecasting 2011 to be a significant year for the industry with the 3G market as the percentage of the overall mobile market set to pass the 50% mark for the first time on record. BMI is forecasting the number of 3G subscribers to reach 9.19mn, equivalent to 52.2% of the mobile market.

In light of the crucial role 3G has to play going forward, it is clear that it is the higher end of the market that is driving growth and will continue doing so over the next five years. The rising interest in mobile social networking and entertainment services is being carried along by growing numbers of affordable smartphones, often packaged with very attractively priced call bundles. However, as operators remain reticent about eliminating inactive customers from their records, it is still difficult to see where growth is coming from: cannibalisation of existing 2G customers or from greenfield markets. Nevertheless, and despite anticipating further slowdown in overall mobile subscriber growth, BMI is forecasting the mobile market to serve 18.111mn subscribers by the end of the newly-extended forecast period to 2015, yielding a penetration rate of 171.2%.

The country's three mobile network operators are highly focused on the premium end of the market and are actively wooing lower-value prepaid customers to their postpaid offerings, though the recession did impact on their success in this area in 2009. Telecomunicacoes Moveis Nacionais (TMN), Vodafone Portugal and Optimus continue to report falling mobile ARPUs, despite the steadily rising proportion of value-added services in their revenue mixes. Now that they can no longer rely as heavily on mobile termination revenues as once they did, the operators have to be more creative in the way they market their data services and how they earn revenues from doing so.

Although there are now just as many 'active' mobile broadband subscribers as there are customers of fixed broadband services, consumers remain as interested in services delivered by fixed connections as before. Indeed, the number of fixed lines grew by 2.46% to 4.450mn in the first nine months of 2010, continuing the growth trend of 2009. This was attributed to increased interest in double- and triple-play services from cable operators such as ZON and Cabovisao, which more than offset fixed-line losses at incumbent Portugal Telecom (PT) and independent rivals such as Sonaecom and OniTelecom. Fixed-line operators - plus mobile operator Vodafone - are also looking to fibre to deliver high quality broadband services to residential and business customers, suggesting that consumers are prepared to pay more for premium services in their pursuit of high quality services. That said, we see fixed-line numbers falling from 2011 onwards, ending 2015 with 3.62mn connections. The broadband segment will increasingly be propped up by mobile broadband connections; by 2015, there will be 7.715mn broadband users of all kinds.

Another key development since our last report was the big M&A deal which brought the sector onto international investors' radars. In merger and acquisition terms, Telefonica's bid for the 50% stake of Brasilcel held by PT was resolved relatively quickly, taking just three months. Raising its bid a fourth time, to EUR7.5bn in July 2010, Telefonica finally managed to persuade PT to relinquish its stake in Brasilcel, which owns 60% of Brazil's mobile market leader Vivo. PT has transferred its interest in the Brazilian telecoms market to take a stake in Oi, the fixed-line and broadband market leader, apparently leaving all parties happy with the outcome.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/114387_portugal_telecommunicat...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

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For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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