New Market Research Report: Kazakhstan and Central Asia Petrochemicals Report 2011

Feb. 3, 2011 - PRLog -- Although Central Asia has considerable oil and gas resources, efforts to expand petrochemicals capacity have been slow to proceed, in part due to the impact of the international economic crisis on investment activity, according to BMI's latest Kazakhstan and Central Asia Petrochemicals Report.

KazMunaiGaz has struggled to find a project partner for its Kazakhstan Petrochemicals Industries (KPI) complex, with LyondellBasell effectively dropping out due to its own financial woes, and instead has proceeded alone. With construction beginning in 2010, project deadlines look likely to be met with capacities including an 850,000tpa ethane cracker, 450,000tpa propane dehydrogenation unit, 400,000tpa of LDPE/HDPE, 400,000tpa LLDPE and 400,000tpa of PP. The levels of capacity at KPI, which will use locally available gas as feedstock, will enable it to compete on export markets - mostly the CIS - with new ethane-fed plants in the Middle East. They will also benefit from a high level of vertical integration. The risk is the focus on a small range of commodity chemicals and the lack of product differentiation and specialisation.

At the same time, Kazakhstan's domestic market is set to accelerate due to rapid industrialisation and growth in consumer demand. Under the optimistic demand forecast for PE and PP in Kazakhstan by 2015, the per capita consumption is expected to exceed the average world level, and by 2020 the figures could reach the level in developed countries. The average PE consumption worldwide is 8-10kg and PP consumption is about 5kg. The most developed countries - the US, Japan and Western European countries - consume about 20-40kg and 15-20kg per capita respectively.

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have substantial resources, but inadequate conditions for investment. For Uzbekistan, a more gradual expansion of existing capacity is likely and plans have been delayed. Currently, Uzbekistan is planning a gas-fed complex at Akchalak, a joint venture (JV) between Uzbekneftegas, Honam Petrochemical, Korea Gas Corporation and three other Korean companies. The Uzbekistan complex would be fully integrated and include natural gas lifting and separation facilities; an ethane cracker designed to produce 400,000tpa ethylene; and downstream units with capacity for 380,000tpa high-density polyethylene and 81,000tpa polypropylene. The complex was expected onstream at the end of 2012, but a lack of progress in 2010 makes it unlikely to come online until 2013 at the earliest. Meanwhile, construction is due to begin in 2011 on a complex at Navoiazot's site in the Navoi region with 50,000tpa of PVC capacity. The company is also considering entering into methanol and olefin production. A preliminary study has set out plans for 900,000tpa ammonia and 1mn tpa carbamide. Methanol capacity is planned at 500,000tpa. Turkmenistan is also adding downstream capacity, concentrating on fertilisers with plans for an ammonia plant with 1,200tpd and a urea unit with 1,925t/d at Mary. Completion is scheduled for 2013.

Our assumptions are that the combined Kazakh and Uzbek ethylene capacity is expected to expand from 240,000tpa in 2010 to 1.49mn tpa by 2015 with the completion of the KPI complex and the Uzbekneftegas-led JV with five Korean firms. Polymer capacity in the region is set to rise from 465,000tpa to 1.84mn tpa largely as a result of the development of these two complexes.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Kazakhstan And Central Asia Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
- Kazakhstan Political SWOT
- Kazakhstan Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Facilities 2010
Industry Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Projects
- Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Kazakhstan - Economic Activity
- Uzbekistan
- Uzbekistan - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
- KazMunaiGaz
- Uzbekneftegaz
- Aktau Plastics Plant (Akpo)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.