"Nigeria Freight Transport Report 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

Jan. 28, 2011 - PRLog -- Israeli shipping line Zim Integrated Shipping Services (Zim) in November announced that it was selling its 47.5% stake in a container terminal at the Nigerian port of Tin Can Island. BMI noted that this deal would benefit the shipping line, which had only recently returned to the black after incurring huge debts during the recession of 2009. It controlled Tin Can Island Container Terminal (TICT) in a partnership with French logistics company Bollore. Bollore will retain its share of the operation, in a new joint venture (JV) between China Merchants and the China-Africa Development Fund. Zim is selling its share of the terminal, which includes three berths, with a fourth under construction, for US$154mn.

Once the new berth is completed the capacity of the container terminal will rise from 360,000 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) a year to about 400,000TEUs per annum. According to our estimates and forecasts, throughput at the port will continue to rise over the medium term, growing by an average yearon- year (y-o-y) rate of 9.4% from 2011 to 2014. Not only does Zim benefit from increased liquidity, but its shipping services lose none of the advantages they currently enjoy through Zim controlling TICT, as the deal with China Merchants includes a 10-year agreement with the terminal for Zim vessels' calls. As Zim currently has eight vessels making regular calls at TICT, (two on the Med Africa Line Service and six on the North Europe Africa Service), BMI notes that this could prove invaluable to Zim.

As we go into 2011, BMI is relatively bullish about the Nigerian economy and its impact on the local freight transport industry. True, the country faces big problems in the key banking, oil and power sectors, and political risk factors are significant in advance of the presidential elections. On the other hand, however, the big story is of rising domestic consumption based on a huge population (159mn), youthful demographic and emerging middle class. Providing the necessary investment can be channelled to the right sectors, the country's non-oil sector is beginning to flex its muscles.

As a result of our analysis, BMI estimates 2010 GDP growth of 7.5% in Nigeria (following on from 6.9% the previous year). Our outlook for 2011 is for the economy to maintain a similar pace despite the 'double dip' global slowdown, with Nigerian GDP growing by 7.4%, and then accelerating fractionally to 7.6% in 2012. In the five years to 2015, we expect growth to average 7.5% a year, implying that Nigeria will be one of Sub-Saharan Africa's clear out-performers.

After strong growth from a low base in 2008 and 2009, we saw slower but still double-digit expansion of air cargo volume in 2010, when it rose by an estimated 15.3% to 211,700 tonnes. In 2011, we forecast 12.1% growth to 237,300 tonnes.

Against the background of slower global trade growth, in 2011 Nigeria's main bulk port at Lagos (Apapa) will see tonnage up by 6.3% to reach a total of 18.195mn tonnes. At the country's second largest facility, the Port of Tin Can Island, growth in 2011 is predicted at 10.8% to 9.018mn tonnes.

In terms of cargo volume, Nigeria's railway system experienced a year of high single-digit percentage growth in 2009 (up by 9.8%). We estimate a slightly slower pace in 2010 with growth of 8.3%. For 2011 we expect the pace to continue decelerating with 6.9% expansion to 193,700 tonnes.

In real terms, Nigerian trade grew by a relatively subdued 4.8% in 2009, began to speed up in 2010 (estimated growth of 7.2%) and is set to gain a fraction more in 2011 (+7.4%). In nominal terms we are expecting imports to total US$61.16bn in 2011, with exports greater at US$67.73bn. Nigeria will therefore continue to register its traditional oil exporter' trade surplus. In the period to 2015, average import growth in real terms will be 7.5% a year, with exports growing at the very slightly higher rate of 7.6%.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Nigeria Freight SWOT
- Nigeria Political SWOT
- Nigeria Economic SWOT
- Nigeria Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
- Multi-Modal
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Water
Industry Trends And Developments
- Multi-Modal/Logistics
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Maritime
Industry Forecast
- Macroeconomic
- Airfreight
- Table: Air Freight, 2007-2015
- Maritime
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2007-2015 (throughput, '000 tonnes)
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2015
- Trade
- Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2015
- Table: Nigeria's Main Import Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
- Table: Nigeria's Main Export Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2007-2015
Company Profile
- Nigeria Railways Corporation
Country Snapshot: Nigeria Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.