Market Report, "Austria Commercial Banking Report Q1 2011", published

Jan. 16, 2011 - PRLog -- New Basel Rules Could Impede Growth    We believe the Austrian banking sector will move to a lower growth path going forward. Enhanced regulation and higher capital requirements, combined with a weaker demand environment across Europe,  will significantly curtail the expansion of Austria's banking industry over the medium-to-long term.    Although exposure to emerging markets in South East Europe has caused asset quality at Austrian banks to deteriorate, the industry has so far avoided any major problems. While short-term crisis risks have been diffused by implicit support from the European Central Bank, the growth outlook for the industry is fairly weak. In particular, with banks having to unwind risky positions in emerging markets and shore up their balance sheets, fresh lending will likely be curtailed.  In addition, we warn that the move towards enhanced regulation over the medium-to-long term could be a significant impediment to bank operations. In particular, rules being drawn up by the Basel Committee  will likely demand higher capital ratios, which will limit asset acquisitions and, in particular, loan growth.    UniCredit estimates that Austrian banks may need to find EUR19-35bn in fresh capital to comply with  the new regulations. Though new rules have been drafted, it is still unclear what the new Tier 1 capital  regulations will be. In any case, the increase will likely have a significant impact on medium-term  growth. As such, while financial stability could improve markedly as a result of higher quality regulation,  the competitiveness of Austrian banks may suffer significantly as a result.    Fiscal Consolidation Will Deal Another Blow    Aside from new capital rules and endemic deleveraging, we believe that efforts by governments across Europe to consolidate public finances will be detrimental to the asset growth of Austrian banks. By  sapping domestic demand and weakening broader economic activity, fiscal consolidation will dampen asset returns over the medium term. In addition, there is a risk that should governments tighten too much  and too soon, the regional recovery could be derailed, putting even greater stress on the Austrian banking sector.    As a result of these dynamics, we expect industry growth to move to a lower growth path. We forecast  asset growth to average 4.8% over 2010-2014, compared to the 12.1% average for 2004-2008. On the  back of rising deposits and more prudent lending, we also forecast a marginal improvement in the loan-todeposit  ratio to 122% in 2014, down from 126% in 2010. The risks to our outlook remain weighted to the  downside, with an increase in non-performing loans in key south-eastern European markets, as well as the  potential for further eurozone sovereign debt ructions, being particularly key threats.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (EURbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At June 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
- Table: Projected Levels (EURbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Austria Commercial Banking SWOT
- Austria Political SWOT
- Austria Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Austria's Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
- Table: Developed States Banks' Bond Portfolios
- Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010 (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010e (US$)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2009-2010
Europe Banking Sector Outlook
Austria Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Austria Economic Activity, 2007-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Table: Protagonists In Austria's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Major Austrian Banks
Company Profiles
- BAWAG PSK
- Volksbank
- Raiffeisen Zentralbank Osterreich
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Erste Group
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Bank Austria
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Hypo Group Alpe Adria
- Kommunalkredit
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Oesterreichische Kontrollbank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
BMI Banking Sector Methodology
- Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.