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Follow on Google News | New market study, "Iran Defence & Security Report Q1 2011", has been publishedNew Defense research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
The radical nature of the Iranian regime has made it the vanguard of anti-Israeli sentiment in the region. More importantly though there are two key factors that mitigate against Iran assuming any sort of regional leadership status. The first is that Iran is Persian and not Arab. The second is that the country is Shi'a and not Sunni (only 10-13% of the word's Muslim population is Shi'a). Iran's seeming determination to become a nuclear power raises tensions across the region. If successful, it could cause other countries in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey to consider establishing nuclear weapons programmes of their own. More immediately there is the overhanging threat of military action by Israel and/or the US against Iran's nuclear facilities, even though there is a substantial reluctance to pursue such a course since the consequences are somewhat unpredictable. The more immediate threats to the regime are internal. Weak economic progress, exacerbated by US pressure on key trading partner the UAE, is making the government and the President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, increasingly unpopular. Nonetheless, while Ahmadinejad's administration will face public protests over the weak state of the domestic economy, these will probably lack the numbers or breadth of appeal to unseat him. Even so, with Iran's economy expected to remain structurally weak over the medium term, the risk that public unrest could exacerbate internal regime schisms is certainly pronounced. The larger risks stem from divisions within the regime. Several prominent political figures are reportedly working to undermine Ahmadinejad in the eyes of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, possibly with a view to forcing his impeachment before his second and final term ends in summer 2013. As with most regime change events it has usually proved virtually impossible to predict in advance when, or if, the critical tipping point would be reached. The lack of any official economic figures post Q308 suggests the results were poor and the government is reluctant to release information that would only add to its political woes. In the absence of any better data were are leaving our GDP growth forecast for this financial year (March 2010-February 2011) unchanged at 2.1% rising to 3.0% in 2011 and 3.5% through the balance of the forecast period. Iran is one of the world's largest crude oil producers and in FY2007/08 the oil industry represented 27% of GDP. We see oil production remaining essentially flat over the forecast period, meaning it will not be able to contribute to economic growth. The defence sector operates under severe international sanctions that greatly restrict both imports and exports. Domestically the military-industrial complex was centralised under the Defence Industries Organization (DIO) in 1981. While there has been some relaxation in this level of central control, the majority of the industrial base is still conducted by companies operated by the state-owned DIO. There are few, if any, opportunities for foreign investment in the present environment. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Partial Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Iran Security SWOT - Iran Defence Industry SWOT - Iran Political SWOT - Iran Economic SWOT - Iran Business Environment SWOT Global Political Outlook - Global Hotspots - Latin America: More Of The Same - Western Europe - Central Europe - South Eastern Europe - Russia And The Former Soviet Union - Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges - Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending - Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China - Wild Cards Global Security Outlook The Future Of NATO Middle East Security Overview - The Middle East In A Global Context - Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security - The Outlook For The Middle East Political Overview - Domestic Politics - Long-Term Political Outlook - Foreign Policy Security Risk Analysis - BMI's Security Ratings - Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings - Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index - Iran's Security Risk Ratings - City Terrorism Rating - Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index Domestic Security Overview - MKO - Kurdish Groups - Sunni Extremists - Latest Developments Armed Forces And Government Spending - Current Strength - Historical Strength - Equipment - International Deployments - Weapons Of Mass Destruction - Background Brief: Iran's Nuclear Programme, 2002-2009 - Delivery Vehicles Market Overview - Arms Trade Overview - Industry Trends And Developments - Table: Key Players In Iran's Defence Sector - Procurement Trends And Developments Industry Forecast Scenario - Table: Iran's Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel) - Table: Iran Defence Personnel - Available Man Power For Military Services 2009-2015 - Table: Iran's Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 - Table: Iran's Expenditure Scenario: Changing % Of Gov Expenditure, 2008-2015 - Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario - Macroeconomic Outlook - Table: Iran Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts, 2008-2015 Company Profiles - International Companies - China Great Wall Industries Corporation - Sukhoi - Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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