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Follow on Google News | Recently released market study: South Africa Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "South Africa Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011"
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 123.4bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. In 2010, South Africa's estimated share of regional gas supply will have been an estimated 1.59%, rising to 2.17% by 2015. The country's share of demand in 2010 will have been an estimated 5.67%, with 7.96% predicted by 2015. For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl. For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year's level. We estimate that South African real GDP will rise by 3% in 2010. We are predicting average annual growth of 3.9% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 523,000b/d in 2010 to 564,000b/d in 2015, representing less than 1.5% annual growth that lags our underlying economic assumptions. There is very little domestic crude production, although national companies contribute some 200,000b/d of synthetic oil output. International oil companies (IOCs) are restricted largely to roles in oil refining and fuels distribution. Gas production could reach 7bcm by 2013/14, up from an estimated 3.5bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 7bcm to 14bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 7bcm. Between 2010 and 2020 we are forecasting an increase in South African oil consumption of 17.8%, with demand rising steadily to 616,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Synthetic oil production is set to rise from 205,000b/d to 350,000b/d, with crude imports peaking at 306,000b/d in 2010. Gas consumption is expected to rise to 17bcm by the end of the period, requiring imports to increase from an estimated 3.5bcm in 2010 to 12bcm by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. South Africa now shares first place with Algeria in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is now ranked equal third alongside Nigeria in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, despite its virtually non-existent oil and gas resource base. It stands just one point above Angola, so may come under pressure over the medium term. South Africa's score reflects the low level of state asset ownership and the advanced stage of privatisation, plus an established licensing framework and largely encouraging country risk factors. South Africa leads the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, with several high scores. It is ranked ahead of Egypt and Algeria, thanks largely to high scores for oil demand, gas consumption growth, non-state competition, deregulation, and nominal GDP. Egypt is three points below and represents a longer-term threat to South Africa's rating. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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