New market study, "China Defence & Security Report Q1 2011", has been published

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "China Defence & Security Report Q1 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
 
Jan. 13, 2011 - PRLog -- North East Asia will remain a zone of potential great power rivalry for the foreseeable future, due to the shifting dynamics between a rising China and weakening Japan and Russia, with the US seeking to maintain its role as the regional balancer. North Korea and Taiwan will remain the main flashpoints to watch, although we believe the main powers will work to contain any escalation of tensions. Indeed, deepening economic integration in the region means that virtually no country is willing to become embroiled in new hostilities. Nonetheless, historical mistrust of Japan on the part of China and the Koreas, due to Tokyo's World War II legacy, and potentially between China and South Korea over the future of the Korean Peninsula, mean old tensions will re-emerge from time to time.

Japan's swift accession to China's demands in the recent dispute over a detained Chinese fishing captain demonstrated that Beijing has the upper hand in bilateral relations. However, if China behaves too assertively in East and South East Asia, it risks driving its neighbours further into the US's geopolitical embrace - something that is not in its long-term interest.

While a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy remains our baseline scenario, with liquidity still abundant, the property market reigniting and external demand holding up, we are pushing back our call for a slowdown into 2011, from Q410 previously. We now see real GDP growth coming in at 9.7% in 2010, while maintaining our below-consensus view of a slowdown to 7.5% in 2011. Should the government maintain the current easy monetary policy, this could see growth overshoot our 2011 forecast, although this would most likely come at the expense of longer-term growth.

The Chinese economy has been cooling in recent months, in line with our view. Fixed-asset investment has continued to decline and the growth rate of exports has cooled substantially - the two most important growth drivers and two that have led to a cooling in purchasing managers' indices. Consensus projections for real GDP growth both in 2010 and 2011 have also come in more in line with our long-held view of a slowdown. However, in the absence of a US double-dip recession that could potentially collapse export demand or further tightening measures to rein in the Chinese property market, our 2010 real GDP growth forecast of 8.8% looked conservative, leading us to revise this figure to 9.7%, with 8.1% growth expected in H210. That said, we continue to forecast real GDP growth of just 7.5% in 2011 as we believe that the rebalancing that has yet to occur thus far will need to take place, which will put a ceiling on economic growth in spite of the government's ambitious infrastructure plans. We also see the potential for inflation pressures to creep up if the economy overheats which, in the absence of a sharp slowdown in the economy, could require significant tightening measures going forward.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/106481_china_defence_security_...


Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- China Defence Industry SWOT
- China Security SWOT
- China Political SWOT
- China Economic SWOT
- China Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Global Hotspots
- Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011
- Latin America: More Of The Same
- Western Europe
- Central Europe
- South Eastern Europe
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union
- Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
- Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
- Wild Cards
Global Cyber Security Outlook
North East Asia Security Overview
- North East Asia: The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Political Overview
- Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
- Security Risk Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- China's Security Risk Rating
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Asia City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- External Security Situation
- Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
- China-US Relations
- China-Japan Relations
- China-Taiwan Relations
- China-Tibet Relations
- China-Korea Relations
- China-Russia Relations
- China-India Relations
- EU Arms Embargo
Armed Forces and Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, '000 personnel)
- Joint Operations And Exercises
- International Deployments
- Table: China's Deployments
- Peace Mission 2005
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Recent Changes
- Arms Trade Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Procurement Trends And Developments
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Players In China's Defence Sector
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: China's Defence Military Personnel, 2000-2008 ('000)
- Table: China's Defence Military Personnel, 2008-2015 ('000)
- Table: China's Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
- Table: China's Defence Expenditure: % Of GDP; 2010-2015
- Table: China's Defence Exports; 2008-2015 (US$mn)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1064...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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