Recently released market study: Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
 
Jan. 13, 2011 - PRLog -- The new Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.03% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 3.77% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn b/d in 2001 will rise to an estimated 3.81mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and will in 2010 average an estimated 10.18mn b/d. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 123.4bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. Equatorial Guinea will consume an estimated 1.31% of the region's gas in 2010, with its market share set to be 1.18% by 2015. It will contribute 2.92% to estimated 2010 regional gas production and, by 2015, will account for 2.11% of supply.

For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.

For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year's level.

Equatorial Guinea's real GDP is estimated by BMI to rise by 3.5% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.3% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 1,158b/d in 2010 to 1,477b/d in 2015. State oil company GEPetrol's primary focus is to manage the interest stakes of the government in various production sharing contracts (PSCs) and joint ventures (JVs) with international oil companies (IOCs). Thanks to IOC investment, oil output is forecast to increase from an estimated 335,000b/d in 2010 to 455,000b/d in 2015. Gas production should be around 6.8bcm by 2015. Consumption is expected to rise from 1.6bcm to 2.1bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 4.7bcm - in the form of LNG.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Equatorial Guinea oil and gas liquids production of 22.8%, with volumes peaking at 455,000b/d in 2015, before falling steadily to 411,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1,896b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 7.5bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 62.9% between 2010 and 2020, there is scope for exports of around 4.9bcm. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Equatorial Guinea holds 10th place, ahead only of Sudan, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It also holds 10th place, again above only Sudan, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings and is in a reasonable position to move higher over the medium term. The country's score benefits from moderate oil and gas output growth prospects and attractive licensing terms. The country's risk environment is somewhat shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in the African region. Equatorial Guinea is near the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or refineries are built. It is ranked equal eighth with Gabon and Cameroon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/106491_equatorial_guinea_oil_g...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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